Will the market go down on a good jobs report now?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bonds, Dec 12, 2012.

  1. bonds


    If we get a great jobs number that drops the unemployment rate a few points will the market go down the more we get closer to 6.5%?
  2. ktm


  3. market will never go down again
  4. Famous last words.

  5. Unemployment is not expected to get to that target until 2015. The other threshold for stopping QE is inflation > 2.5% - we may reach that first, given that this is a jobless recovery and hiring will happen overseas rather than here if companies can help it.
  6. Bowgett


  7. ktm


    Bernanke also said in his prepared statement that a number below the target wasn't explicit justification for raising the target rate. They would also consider the sustainability of the rate, workforce participation rate, economic conditions affecting the trend and various other qualitative factors.

    Based on all the additional qualifiers from the presser, 6.5% doesn't look like anything you can hang your hat on. It looks like a fairly random target that will (at best) cause them to CONSIDER DISCUSSING a target raise if all the other factors are lining up.

    If the participation rate continues to decline at the current rate AND we get a fiscal cliff semi-resolution, we should hit 6.5% well before 2015.
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