We're currently in a pennant formation in the market having pulled back from the spike rally, with volume and volatility tapering off. It's soon to be resolved...but will it be up since we might just be relieving the overbought condition before we continue the rally, or will it be down since we're still in an intermediate term downtrend?
I say more likely up. Look at a 60 minute chart and what it shows is rally's have good volume and sell off's don't. In my opion that says buyers are waiting for a good price or might be forced to chase the market.
I agree with you but the problem is this rally never began at the oversold levels of last July and October so it makes me more suspect. But I respect this last rally and the fact that the selloff has been on low volume and has been "so far" fairly contained.
The rally that began a week or so ago was started in the middle of the day when gold and bonds sold off. then the money shifted into the dollar and equity. One of my own indicators are telling be the market wants to rip. But if we start tanking on volume mark that ticket short. Upside is what I do expect and have reasons why I would have a long bias
Yorr chart is bearish but needs volume to confirm a real wave of selling to follow through. The heavy up volume and huge rally are a true sign if big money buying. If we do break down and start getting big volume days like 1.4 billion or more then the market is getting weak. There is an old saying Never Short A Dull Market and for good reason. You don't know when the money mangers will start buying again. So that is what I think.
All those charts show is that we are in a long term downtrend since 2000. Is there anyone on this earth that does not know that already? Unfortuneately, it gives little clue as to where the market may resolve itself from the current pullback. I would say there is more buying power underneath this market since the pullbacks, thus far, have been contained and buyers have stepped in at certain price points. What I don't like is that going into this rally we were not that oversold and there was quite a bit of complacency already (ie. people were already positioning themselves for the war rally).