Since Bill Gross and his crew say the Fed will pause, i'm gonna have to say pause as well! Buy some gold.
I didn't read the entire thread-so forgive me, but didn't ECB raise rates this week? If so that puts pressure on Ben. Heck a recession is long over due. We should have had a real one after 911. Get it on and over with.
You mean 50 basis points <b>tomorrow</b>? Yeah, right! That'll happen the day we see a chimpanzee elected president! (Oooops. Bad example, but you know what I mean.)
No raise in the rate. Market will run up and then tank when they realize what it means. Hard times are a com'in.
Since this is such convoluted, unnecessarily complicated contract (underlying is an average of the ENTIRE month of august, instead of one specific day like it should be.), looking at the quote probably won't help you. Leesman on CNBC said that the Fed Funds futures are pricing in (only) a 21% chance of a rate hike... so I guess we'll just have to take his word for it. Notice how greatly this figure diverges from the expectations of the great minds here on ET.
I think they will pause, but I never trade ahead of reports anyway, so either scenario is OK as long as we get volatility! Jay