Will the Fed pause on Tuesday?

pause,......blink,....raise 1/4point

run swiftly in corner to hide

 

Long 2 years = long 2 year notes (or 07/08 eurodollars)

 

you mean you want to be long s&p PUTS! =)

 

How's it working so far?

 

I bought a buncha cheap long VIX Nov calls - will make a straight play or hedge either way - watch the financials RKH, XLF as well for reaction

 

increase.....do some double speak....increase again....more double speaking, etc.....

 

So far so good. I've made my first entry, plan on adding twice more. Once right before the Fed decision, hopefully they pause, the market ralies and I can make my final and largest entry when all of the puts are cheapest.

At that point it will be a waiting game. I'm long SPY puts expiring in 12/06, 03/07, 06/07, and 12/07. Strikes range from 105 down to 85...

Not interested in put spreads since I think SPY may fall as low as 65. Nothing to do after this but sit back and wait...

 

This is a simple one.

Raise 1/4 and "some" dovish talk (based upon the numbers) with a bias towards pause.

 

fight inflation #1 priority

maintain strong dollar policy (crushed yesterday)

fed goes another .25bps

 

market tanks... either ties to maintain composure over next few weeks, or begins the slide right away...