Seriously you need to stop posting irrational crap on this site. From March 24, 2020 : That's what irrational negativity does to trading.
It's pathetic you digged through my post history in order to prove my view about the market is consistent. Apparently you dont understand how fiat currency and banking actually works. You didn't refute anything I said. Which indicates to me, at least, that you're just a degen trader and not an actual investor. Care to explain to me why in the last 30 years the time between boom and bust has shortened over and over again? Could it be overleveraged megabanks and politicians printing more and more money? What happens when the fed runs out of options? You have to study history. This has happened over and over again and the psychology of the market is akin to tulipmania at this point. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe Do you truly believe that the average company is worth 36 times earnings? Have you spent any time reading the three sheets for any of these big swinging dick companies? The majority of market value has come from exactly one thing: cheap money allowing companies to do massive buybacks to drive their price up artificially. I get this particular forum is for degenerate gamblers but even degenerates should pay attention to the strategy and it's particular downfalls. Do you truly believe that the S&P is actually representative of the market? It's controlled by less than 1/10th of it's constituents. You can pull the data from quandl and prove this to yourself in a few hours. Market cap weighted indexing and the average person just mindlessly loading up on whatever vanguard is offering today is creating unprecedented market volatility. All of this to say I can justify my assessment of the market with the numbers. When someone doesn't feel right you should pay attention to it even if you're just a degenerate shitposter. I'm still in the market but my strategy has changed to defensive.
Shiller has been on the wrong side of this market for many, many years. If you truly take a valuation basis on your decisions, like I do, you should have been buying stocks hand over fist roughly around March 23th, 2020 ( lets say give or take a week ). I had no problem finding stellar bargains with great balance sheets and income streams that were bound to get better once Covid was better understood. I looked back at that week for a reason. I wanted to see if you were smart enough to recognize a huge value play when it occurred. Because you seem to want people to believe you are all about value. Alas, you failed that test. Saying the move on March 23rd, 2020 was a "bull trap" was a terrible call very similar to S2007S telling everybody to liquidate all their equity holdings late spring 2009. Those are comically bad calls that not only can cost people money but they speak to your ability to interpret and act on longer term factors. Prior to March 23, the TSX was at year 2010 levels. It sold off 10 years worth of gains despite badly lagging US indexes the last 8 years of them. Generational opportunity. March 23rd was the best performing day on the TSX on a percentage basis in history.
Your post is hilarious because you accuse me of not paying attention when in fact it's you not paying attention. I too have done extremely well since march having looked for opportunities outside the view of major BB analysts. I've also done alright in futures over the last year which seem to be easier to trade than stocks these days. The market isn't propped up by good value. It's propped up by literal helicopter money Trump and Biden have been shoving into the furnace since COVID first hit. It is absolutely a bull trap, and still is. When the pumps turn off the fire is going to extinguish. You need to be watching the fed balance sheet. Around mid 2020 several things happened to pump the market: (1) Helicopter money to companies (2) Helicopter money to people (3) Fed running out of options and buying ETFs By all means, take advantage of it while you can. I wasn't make a call to exit the market by calling it a bull trap. It's a bull trap, but if you're aware of it you can hedge some of your risk. If you interpreted me calling it a bull trap as a sign to flee the market that's your problem. I liquidated a lot of exposure to small caps and bought more stable stocks. I am interpreting long term factors. Very long term factors. Look at the money supply. Spend some time on FRED. The macro situation is not good. There is absolutely no way you in all your clairvoyance would've been able to predict trillions in bailout money (which, by the way, was used to prop stocks up with yet MORE buybacks). It's easy to call me an idiot in hindsight. A famous past time of traders I guess.