Will Swiss Central Bank give up EURCHF peg?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by sambazone, Nov 9, 2012.

  1. sambazone


    I am curious what you guys think about The Swiss National Bank SNB defending the eurchf peg.

    SNB already accumulated over 400 Billion Eur defending the peg of 1.20

    It has used about 50 Bill of that pile of EUR to buy notes of core european countries like Germany. It also bought treasury notes of USA,Britain, Australia, Canada.

    The buying of notes pushed up GBP/AUD/CAD/USD relative to EUR.

    The recent surge of EUR relative to USD from 1.21 to 1.31 has seen EUR/CHF barely budge. The past week eurchf has been heading back to 1.20.

    Once, EUR starts to get under pressure relative to major currencies (it is happening already) I think we have all indication that SNB will renounce 1.20 peg and move lower to 1.15. After all, it can't keep expanding its balance sheet with EUR.

    I would be curious to see 1.195 puts and 1.215 calls right now but CME does not seem to trade options on EUR/CHF futures.


    Trade idea: Sell EUR/CHF, buy USD/CHF; buy GBP/CHF all at the same time..
    Any thoughts?