SLV 38 appears to be giant resistance where the previous dead cat bounce attempt failed. Right now it is less than 3% away. It is so close that the bulls may be able to push above it to lure some more dumb money. Interestingly, a few days ago the overnight session high was ~38 equivalent for SLV. Could that have been the final push and the short covering squeeze for the current run-up? Time for a down leg? I have no clue of course.
yet another very bullish article. how could anybody be so sure about Silver direction? While this type of sentiment may not be the sure sign to Short Silver, it clearly a really good sign to NOT hold it. if I were holding Silver I would definitely dump it after reading articles like that. now i need to look for bearish articles to make sure i have not missed them. "...The market is likely to engage in a trading range, and we believe we have identified the bottom of it, with support starting at the 36.50 area, and strongest just under 33.00. We expect to see more sideways activity, with an upward bias, as the market rebuilds a base from which to launch into the next phase of this bull market, and next time around, the $50 level will not repel advances as it did in April. Go Bulls!!!...." http://www.insidefutures.com/article/276043/Silver - Context: Accumulation Likely Underway.html
This is a serious weakness in your thinking. You used the same logic to explain why you were shorting the S&P 500 last September/October. Go ahead, pull up your old posts and take a look. The bullish sentiment is related to long term fundamentals based on supply/demand and the US money printing. Whether you agree or not, to suggest shorting Silver based on positive "sentiment" is just not a very bright idea at this point. Silver price could go in either direction, to attribute the long side as being somehow riskier is illogical.
i agree with you that was totally wrong about SPY BUT now we are talking about Silver and not SPY. the articles seriously discuss new high for Silver which is 30% away AFTER the most recent bounce. Silver +100% in 10 months AFTER the dump from the blow-off top. why should anybody be seriously Long Silver and Sleep well at night is beyond me.
The same case can be made for being Short Silver. Its a highly charged play. Personally, I think the best short term play is long some of the beaten down resource stocks. Copper/Steel/Potash are getting positive news right now. I'm seeing rotation in Canada out of financials into resource stocks last week, and it continued today.
SLV is back down to 35 having seen ~34.60. This is a significant move down from the recent high of ~38. I am still able to easily find super-bullish articles. here is one recent example (LOL at "attempting to corner Silver market"): http://www.businessinsider.com/come...--risk-of-comex-silver-default-remains-2011-6 Registered silver inventories are down a sharp 38.5% in just two weeks â from 41,044,280 to 29,631,268. The record nominal highs near $50/oz, seen 31 years ago and again at the end of April, are likely to be seen again sooner rather than later due to the increasingly delicate supply demand balance. The scale of current investment demand and industrial demand, especially from China and the rest of Asia, is such that it is important to keep monitoring COMEX warehouse stocks. The Hunt Brothers were one of a few dozen billionaires in the world in the late 1970âs when they attempted to corner the market. Today there are thousands of billionaires in the world, any number of whom could again attempt to corner the silver market.
The points mentioned in that article appear to be true. Bullishness that makes sense is different then 1998's tech - "but their name is hyper-mega-global-compu-net - they deserve $1000/share stock price even though they have no product."! I was at the Long Beach coin show today and dealers were happy to buy junk silver for very fair if not high prices (I traded some of mine for higher grade Morgans/Walkers). Nowhere to be seen was the public rushing in to dump their silver at these high prices - why? 99% of the public has no real amount to sell anyway. JJacksET4
the poll was initiated when SLV ~35, just where it is now. The trading range has been ~ =/-3. we have 3:1 bulls/bears. the upside appears to be limited with everybody Long silver. The sentiment suggests that we'll either stay at this level or go down. Will SLV touch $10 or $60 first? $10 16 25.40% $60 47 74.60% Total: 63 votes 100% -- Shortie John Silver
SLV was up almost to 37 last week but now is back to 35 again. the supposedly ongoing Silver hoarding may not be real: >>Since the beginning of 2011, the amount of registered silver has fallen almost 38% with a steep drop coming in mid April. Registered silver now stands at 28.7 million ounces as of June 8th while eligible silver has risen 23% to 72 million ounces. ... ...Mark O'Byrne, executive director of Goldcore, a bullion dealer, says the small amount of registered silver is dangerous because if a "tiny fraction of those in the futures decide to take delivery, there is the potential to default." If the Comex can't make good on their commitments, O'Byrne predicts there would be a huge rush into the physical metal or allocated storage and out of paper silver. He also wonders if the steep and aggressive margin hikes silver saw in May, which led to a more than 30% correction in the silver price, were a way of the Comex shaking out investors to prevent them from taking physical delivery. The conspiracy theory doesn't hold much water, however, with Jeffery Christian, managing director of the CPM Group. To put the numbers in perspective, he looks at the 550 million ounces of silver in ETF vaults instead. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11148582/1/silver-shift-shows-defensive-bent.html