Will Powell bust a move tomorrow and throw in some hawkish commentary that disappoint markets? Kind of like when you bring a hot girl to your house when you were in high school and your dad comes home from work early.. Personally, I dont think the fed likes the strong rally we have had. The rally enhances “ the wealth affect and makes consumers more likely to spend money . A stock market rally can be inflationary. Not a one day rally but the month long rally we have had.
Powell will definitely move the market. Up or Down, we don't care. If he doesn't move the market, then we will be extremely worried.
This is what I think. Powell wants that shit to tank. So even if they do 25 points, he will almost surely say some shit about future risks, inflation not beaten yet, have to stay vigilant, more rate hikes likely to come, etc. etc. to get market to move down again. Still, unless the economy tanks more than expected, I think the move lower will be short lived.
Yes, Powell likes to flex his power. I give a higher likelihood of .50 raise than the consensus, based on personality and history of Powell. He likes to strike fear into the markets.
Will Powell bust a move tomorrow? -No. He will stick with the script and hike the interest rate up by 25 basis points as planned. He might reiterate his strong stance on stamping out inflation but he will introduce phrases like "he will carefully monitor the state of the economy and will adjust accordingly"