Will I save the Elliottists from the Quants :D

Discussion in 'Politics & Religion' started by harrytrader, Sep 7, 2003.

  1. A war has burst against Elliotism by Technical Analyst and engineer P. cahen who is the most famous Technical Analyst in France and works in an institutional bank (that is to say he is a heavy authority in the field : his voice will count in the financial community). What is funny is that P. Cahen has been an expert of Elliotism for many years and that he now denies the method :D. According to him (translated by me):

    "since 1997 the majority of financial institutions make research on volatility analysis (IFTA Congress, Roma 1998). The research done in Engineering Schools and Universities laboratories are about the use of Volatility. So it seems to me that if individuals want to compete with professionals they will have to fight on the same field. A conference will be organised on 7th November at Dauphine. To my knowledge, since a dozen years, no research has been made on Elliottist method. If the method was efficient one would know it and published forecast would demonstrate it."

    He also remarked:

    "I have never succeeded (with my 20 years of experience) to make an analysis in less than 20 minutes. This forbids to use it for intraday which would be a pity not to profit from what the market offers."

    Well, well, well, if one day I decide to do so I will save the Elliotism from Quantitative Finance School I can since my method is based on a quantitative model and that I can derive some sort of pseudo-elliott waves and above all it is for real time and done even before globex opens so that there is no subjectivity hee hee :D. That's the problem of traditional elliotism : there is a part of subjectivity and wave counting are done AFTER the market has already made the waves, and the detailed rules are so numerous that it is very difficult to learn and to check. On the contrary my waves are done objectively BEFORE the waves are formed so I can demonstrate the presence of true golden fractal waves to academics if I want to do so (But I don't want to I don't see my interest since I don't want to get any fame and attraction of the mass).

    In French for frenchies:

    "depuis 1997 la quasi totalité des établissements financiers travaillent sur l’analyse de la volatilité (congrès IFTA, Rome 1998). Les travaux sur l’analyse technique faits dans les laboratoires de recherche des Ecoles d’ingénieurs et de certaines universités portent sur l’exploitation de la volatilité. Il me semble donc que si des particuliers veulent se mesurer à des professionnels ils ont intérêt à se placer sur le même terrain. Une conférence sur ce sujet est organisée le 7 novembre à Dauphine (cf pub dans Le Monde). A ma connaissance, depuis une dizaine d’années, aucun travail de recherche ne porte sur la méthode d’Elliott. Si la méthode était au point ceci se saurait et les prévisions publiées pourraient le démontrer. "

    "Par ailleurs, je ne suis jamais parvenu (avec mes 20 ans d’expérience) à faire une analyse en moins de 20 minutes. Ceci interdit de l’utiliser pour l’intraday et ne correspond plus aux possibilités offertes par les marchés."