%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% Actually do some long term trading/investing, even though my favorite time frame is medium; long term trend is still proved up DIA, SPY,QQQ SMH. Actually 1930's had plenty of profits on long side; despite the government taxes/tariff interference which helped cause crash of 1929. DID you check the record in Hirsch Almanac-record longs in dow; day % gains week % gains month % gains - notable % long profits in 1930 s interesting . The truth will set you free. %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% Long term profits & trend are still up if one bought anywhere near right. Looks like the put buyers SMH [bearish buyers ] ALLready took profits longs look strong now.
no its not going to be the same at all. its a different world and alot more safe guards. there are so many extremes posted on this board i remember a few months back people said 1,000,000 dow. i do think we moved up to fast and i still don't get why housing prices are so high. i'm curious to see what happens when fed raises rates. where i live people buy 750k homes like you buy a slice of pizza. its very out of wack so is the bear dead maybe not.
Yes the housing market stinks of 1990 about the same circumstances in the stock market then too. (1987). I see this being a repeat of the early 90's that is about it.... That is of course unless BUSH is re-elected then we are in BIG trouble.
In 1987 OCT quarter, usa sp500 companies posted the best ever profit results, .... yet the crash still happened... The crash or sell off will be because defaltion becomes real... 2 months of dodgy employment reports of an extra 100k partime workers getting jobs could turn to mush...just as easily.. Then IRAQ.... No NEW HIGH this year
I wrote this LONG, intelligent, elaborate message and attached an image to it and when I pressed submit, it was too large to upload and I lost my message. Well, that's great. So I'm going to only upload the resized attachment. It's a weekly 20 year chart of the S&P500 with a 200 period SMA. You be the judge of what you see.
Thats pretty darn scary but in order for any chart to have any real significance to me there must be confirming patterns on several other timeframes. Especially when we are talking about such a significant change of directions as this one would be.
My thoughts on this: first of all yes there are some danger signs, most notably a possible debt and housing bubble. That said, you have to look at what was actually happening in the Great Depression.. would *all* these things hit us at once just like the Great Depression? : #1 : global trade war #2 : asset panic #3 : interest rates at higher than equilibrium #4 : massive liquitity / money velocity reduction #5 : bankrupcy / default of collateral chain reaction #6 : massive expansion in government, tons of new programs and taxes created #7 : massive amount of regulations added So my point is this.. right now we may (or may not) be close to problem #2 with the stock/housing/debt potential bubbles. That could lead to #5 if it was bad enough. However, the Fed is eager to avoid a repeat of #3, which is why interest rates are at 1% right now. Also, the government did expand noticeable during the last several years, but still nothing at all compared to the '30s + '40s. And I don't see us moving more protectionist honestly, except perhaps very slowly in the worst case. So even with some panics, as long as the government doesn't go too crazy and they just let things run their course, we should be limited to a maximum 50% drop in stocks and housing, with a sharp recession for 5 years with unemployment hitting 12%. And then our economy would bounce back and it would be a thing of the past. I don't think it would get worse than that. That is a LOT better of a situation than having an 80% drop in stocks, unemployment hitting 20%, and a recession becoming a Depression for 20 years with little growth. But every economy, including ours, has occassionally experienced a sharp temporary slowdown and as long as the government doesn't do anything too stupid we have always bounced back (and usually in much less than 5 years). In fact the last 3-4 years were a perfect example-- we've had tons of external shocks including terrorist attack, war, corporate scandals, NASDAQ crashed, etc. Yet even with all that, unemployment barely went up more than 1% (and that from a low-level to begin with!), and GDP didn't go down more than about a couple tenths of a percentage for 2 quarters. It was the lightest recession on record, our economy barely took a small breather. Of course the sensationalist political campaigns and media always try to make things look scarier than they are, if you just watched news you'd probably think we had something worse than the Great Depression the last few years lol. -Taric
Your view is too US-centric. Consider the domino effect that occured during the last Asian Financial Crisis. (As a refresher, I'm just finishing up Robert Rubin's book, "In an Uncertain World.") Today China presents some real risk, and the potential to get that domino effect rolling once again is significant. Does the US have the financial and political wherewithal for XX billion dollar bailouts in 2004? How about 2005 or 2006? What would deficits and interest rates look like then? A market decline will have multiple catalysts, many of which are not currently on most investor's / trader's radar screen. Certainly not yours, or necessarily mine for that matter.