Hope your long Oil, even better hopefully when I short I can sell it to you (although I might have missed it, should get at least one decent pump along the way.. maybe at 90-100 area I'll go long for a bounce)
I don't bet commods. If i was long oil i would be rich right now. let me guess you're one of those ones who thinks specs can actually affect supply and demand?
Gas will probably not go below 2.50 because it just will not. At 4 USD gas is too expensive. At 2.50 gas is too cheap. So people will switch cars and pay in absolute terms the same amount for a different car. So you better just tank up, or get a new car where you don't mind tanking up. BTW the reason I say this is due to something that happened to me as a child. I was visiting relatives in Florida (around 1979). In the garage was a big Cadillac from 1971. Beautiful car... So I asked why don't you drive this car? His reply because I only get 8 miles to the gallon and can only drive it every now and then. You see that other car gets 15 miles to the gallon... That is what will happen...
I'm not sure wholesale gas will drop percentagewise as much as the price of crude. I've been told that last week there was still a 23 cent gap between what the refiners wanted to charge and what they could charge.
I'm not sure whats so difficult for people to understand about supply and demand. We know the world isn't using twice as much oil as a year ago, so we know its not demand. As far as supply is concerned...we don't know anything about it. So which do you think it is? The one we can rule out or the one we dont know anything about? hmmmmmmmm and everyone wonders why our military is in the middle east... put two and two together people.
well, elasticity of supply/demand is not necessarily equal to +-1. what about elasticity of supply being equal to infinity (i.e. no spare capacity) and elasticity of demand very low (i.e. no alternatives for indispensable transport)...? also we know quite a bit about supply: we know it is not increasing anymore - if not outright falling... with respect to demand: for every barrel you save chinese will use two (of course bought for lower price than if you did not save) I say - sell your strategic reserves to the market - it is like giving them partly for free to chinese. lol.
Yea. For all we know the government could have already been using the SPR...who knows. Who knows how much oil is in the middle east underground?
well "underground" is not very helpful when you want to drive to a fast food, is it? and "underground" "in the middle east" does not make it better.