Who cares. My government and financial advisors tell me CPI (no food or energy, thank you) and PCE are doing just fine. I don't care if gas costs $10/gallon or if McDonald's suddenly changes its "super value menu" from $1 to $10 per item..
When I first noticed the ending of your posts with the "Inflate or die" insignia, I thought you were another ET looney. The reality is you're one of the most forward looking guy's around. That's Chicago for ya. BTW: I think the dollar bottoms on the meeting and we see 136 EUR by EOY.
"I share your sentiment like you read my mind!" "I think regardless of oil prices, bad economic data, or even bad earnings, there is nothing that will stop the mutual fund managers from continuing to drive the markets higher. Seasonality and year end bonuses trump everything else!"
I think Markets will keep moving up through 2007 and beyond just because there are too many retail shorts in the market at this point in time which has the MMs licking their chops and doing their thing which they have been doing for the past few months - sadistically rejoicing in bringing maximum pain to the majority. Case in point: Amazon. This sucker is overvalued to the max. MMs drove the price up by $10 in just one day before earnings. Big Deal - The stock is now down by about 10 dollars from that price. Too many retail shorts. I guarantee that this animal will hit $100 within a couple of weeks at most - mediocre earnings notwithstanding.
Yes, everyone will be dissappointed. Those want him to raise 50 bp will not be happy, and obviously those who want to devalue the dollar as fast as possible will not be happy with on a .25 cut either.