nice chart, skeptical. it looks to me, on your daily chart, to be a exhaustion type dead cat bounce in the EUR/USD pair. I dont base my decisions on generic chart patterns, but the pattern does seem to confirm my short bias for this week. holding shorts with an average cost of 1.2117. we will see. best, surfer
dude, I think shorting EUR/USD in the only play in town. average 1.1883 for me. I need to see which way the wind's gonna blow before I engage any more shorts tho. the market's paying me interest to hold this risk. current: 1.2118 (ps: I dumped my loser USD/JPY short, btw).
This is what I believe is happening. The move from 1.3669 (all time high from 12/30/04) to 1.2729 (2/7 low) is Wave 1. Then the move up to 1.3482 (3/11 high) is Wave 2. Notice that this is a Regular Corrective Wave and that we retrace more than 61.8%. Furthermore, it is simple in nature. I am going to make a key point later. Then the move down to 1.1866 (7/5 low) is Wave 3. Notice that Wave 3 is 1.618 the length of Wave 1. Now, we come to where I am undecided. Scenario 1. The move up to 1.2590 (9/2 high) is Wave A of Wave 4. Now the move down to 1.1898 (10/4 low) is Wave B of Wave 4. Since Wave 2 was a Regular Corrective Wave that retraces more than 61.8%, then we know from the Rule of Alternation that Big Wave 4 can not be a Regular Corrective Wave and the retracement can not be 61.8%. Furthermore, it has to be complex in nature. That leaves us with either a Flat Corrective Wave or an Irregular Corrective Wave. What I am proposing under this scenario is that we will now see a Wave C that will take us to about 1.2590. Thus completing a Flat Corrective Wave 4. This is provided that 61.8% retracement of Wave B of Wave 4 (1.2325) is broken. Scenario 2. If it is not broken, then what I have labeled as Wave A of Wave 4 is just Wave 4, what I have labeled as Wave B of Wave 4 is Wave 1 of Wave 5, and we are in Wave 2 of Wave 5. Last Friday, we saw 1.2090 hold as support after the release of Non Farm Payroll. Let's see what happens next.
you're reading tea leaves, bro. I may have been among the only traders on earth who went total contrary to the climb from 1.2100s to 1.3665 - I tracked every fundamental and speculative reason in sight. (though, due to being away from the market for over a month I missed the crucial news story about the twin defs that set the spike off to begin with and only became aware of them around 1.3000). at the peak I was 3-cents away from market short. I had 50-short positions open at one point. phenomenal set-up. spectacular risk - off the scale! the rate hadn't moved like that for 15 years. anyway, just kind of rambling here. my point is, waves didn't matter. entire hedge funds went up in smoke when the price unexpectedly retraced hard. everybody was reading every fkin indicator under the sun and no one could see anything coming or going. even Soros went on record as saying he "did not see any large moves coming for EUR/USD" prior to the 1600-point spike. and he's "the best HF manager" there is. our resident HF manager, Neil, said it would "take years" for the price to return. he also said he expected the price to continue climbing: "buy on dips!" point again there, is: no one saw it going up or down. and reading tea leaves didn't help. best, sahamfxskalpertoHellandback
do you have a target, skapZ ? getting a bit of acceleration on the downside here in eur/usd. someone is buying dollars. surfer