I think that the EUR/USD will continue in an upward move this next week. The EUR/USD only could muster falling to 1.2090 today after the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) was read. There seemed to be mixed data after that report was read, saying that 35,000 jobs were eliminated in Sept, but the unemployment rate has increased from 4.9% to 5.1%. Usually when you have mixed data like that the EUR/USD will not make a considerable move in either direction. I think traders and investors will digest the news over the weekend and the Euro will continue its upward momentum. The overall picture, (long-term) is the EUR/USD continuing its path to somewhere in the 1.15 to 1.17 range. What's we're going through now is a small retracement since the Euro is oversold at least on a daily chart.
It could also be called "negligible data" i.e., non-confirmative items and the resulting mix of traders' trades negate the numbers making them essentially non-effective.
I think you're right. One exception. If something... that is now not showing up on the radar of traders' indicators - suddenly appears... and has anti-USD attributes, EUR/USD may arrest its fall, and continue climbing into the 1.2500s and possibly past.
There is the possibility of some non-fundamental news appearing on the radar of traders and investors sending the EUR/USD moving still upward. What could possibly move the EUR/USD higher? Most likely, the recent possible subway attacks up in New York or some other terrorist incident. If there is a terrorist attack up there or anywhere in the US. That would most likely send the EUR/USD higher. I'm kind of surprised that the DOW wasn't spooked by this possible threat today. You would of thought that the DOW would of been much lower due to these news events. Turns out the DOW was up 5 points. It s going to be interesting to see if the EUR/USD continues to fall, and the big-time investors having to throw in the towel or be taken for a paper loss of billions. I'm speaking of Buffet and Bill Gates btw.
Or, if something financial happens such as indicated in my recent Is This It? post. Also, there are... other factors - structural trading factors - that may not be on traders' radars. Simple reason being: Other less non-essential items tend to crowd their screens. Remember, 99% of the trading masses lose, and it is those 99% who move the market: They tend to look at things that don't matter. And not look at things that do. Coinz
I agree. We are propaply going to see a correction to at least as high as 1.2244 (50% retracement of the move from 1.2590 to 1.1898). 61.8% retracement to 1.2326 can not be ruled out. With earnings season starting next week all of this is possible if the stock market takes a big hit.
I think you are right when you say that 99% of the "trading masses" lose their accounts. "They" (the so-called gurus) always say that 90% of traders lose out, but I would think at this time its probably closer to 99% like you said. The numbers were probably a little better during the bull market of the late 90's though. I guess we'll have to wait patiently till Sunday afternoon to see what the USD is going to do against the other major currencies.