So from April to May the market was up 9% and the next earnings that came around in July kicked in another rally that boosted markets 12%. I guess they are extremely optimistic, I mean who wouldn't be with expectations set so low. I predict 75% of the stocks in the s&p will beat expectations. I mean how cant they. After cutting millions of jobs and cutting costs how can these companies not beat earnings. Will Earnings Season Reignite Bull Market? Posted By:Lee Brodie Patterns are emerging that also surfaced ahead of the last two earnings seasons. Will results send bulls off to the races for a third time? Fast Money series producer wrote about this trend on Wednesday in his blog Behind The Money. He says, since the stock market hit a 12-year low in March, the two earnings seasons since that followed lit a fire under share prices -- as the results blew away expectations -- and vindicated the bulls looking for signs that things were getting better or at the very least, less bad. The S&P 500 jumped 12 percent from when Alcoa [AA 14.20 0.31 (+2.23%) ] (the first Dow Average member to report) posted results in early July to five weeks later when Hewlett-Packard [HPQ 46.58 -0.43 (-0.91%) ] (the last Dow member to report) put out its release. In the prior earnings season from early April to late May, the S&P 500 jumped 9 percent. What's more, before Alcoa kicked off the two prior earning seasons, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the 'fear gauge', spiked higher as rally-doubters bought more puts than calls in the options pits to protect themselves going into the profit reports. That bearishness turned into fuel for the rally as the reports began to validate the bull case. We're seeing a similar pattern unfold right now with stocks stalling for two weeks and the VIX coming off a recent spike. Will these earnings reports once again fuel the fire? Both Joe Terranova and Tim Seymour are optimistic. "I think this is the last chance for underperforming money managers to catch up," says the Liquidator. "Guys that are sweating on the sidelines because theyââ¬â¢ve missed gains could stampede back into this market," adds the Ambassador. However, the bar is certainly higher this time as analysts have started to believe -- before seeing the earnings reports -- upgrading many stocks the last two weeks. Also, while the 'fear gauge' did jump last week, it is still WAY down from levels six months ago so there are not as many bears left to turn into bulls this time and fuel the rally.
hmmm 2007 highs? You will need to create bubbles across every asset class to rally the markets back to 2007 highs. I think it might be possible with the collapsing dollar and free monopoly money. I think it happens by early 2010.