The end of America's short reign as the preeminent world power looms ever nearer. Beset with increasing racial, cultural and linguistic division, America is becoming a nation united by little else than common economic interests. Should the world undergo an economic dislocation similar to that which took place during the 30s of the past century, there are no longer any assurances America will recover nor perhaps even emerge an united polity. Across the Pacific lies a recently poor authoritarian state of a billion people. Having abandoned the impossible goal of securing equality for its citizens, it has swapped arcane marxist economics for straightforward capitalist practices, and is busily reaping the rewards. At even modest rates of growth, within the next fifty years it will attain western levels of economic well-being. At that point China will also rival the west militarily. What will be the significance of this for global politics? The Chinese will be a people united by blood and civilization. America (and Europe) will be a mish-mash of peoples 'united' by a high-minded creed her citizens no longer even believe. Americans will no longer be able to assume a technological edge militarily, but even in a fair fight, those fighing for blood are likely to crush those fighting for...a pay check. Given such premises, the Chinese are quite likely to pursue a geopolitical course favoring their own designs, even one that shows scant regard for the welfare of other nations -- just as earlier generations of Europeans once did. A hundred years after the Japanese tried it, China could ebmark on a drang in all directions, secure the land and, with millions of spare citizens, repopulate and hold it indefinitely. The possibilities are manifold. Americans and Europeans may protest that such actions run counter to some or other set of 'universal principles', but the Chinese are unlikely to be bothered. History will continue merrily as history always has. Some may say calmer, more liberal voices in China will prevail. That the Chinese will be too preoccupied consuming mindless throwaway culture much as today's western youths waste their lives. Only a couple of months ago, however, TV reports showed images of a Chinese border guard shooting at a column of people (and killing a couple) illegally trying to leave the country; America won't even shoot at people illegally trying to enter. For the time being, the contrast couldn't be sharper.
Every few years, the "yellow peril" theory will be recycled to scare people. This has repeated many times for the past century. The new century has not changed things much. 20 years ago it was Japan, that they were going to buy every land in the US. Today it is China. If people's ability to predict the future is so reliable, why don't they make billions in the market? Historically, China had always been an inward nation. It never tried to project its power beyond its immediate neighbors even at the height of its civilization (contrast that with the Mongolians who conquered half the world). There is no reason to believe that it will change in the future. Unless, of course, China has been corrupted by the Western culture. But in that case, there is nothing to be afraid of. They're simply one of us.
China isn't as racially homogenous as we all think - its just racially homogenous to westerners who can't tell the different ethnic minorities apart easily. There is plenty of opportunity for unrest over there. Riots, etc... are common in the countryside. News is simply suppressed - benefits of a totalitarian government, you know. No reason, of course, not to buy the chinese market. But just wanted to set facts straight.
True - look at their domination of Tibet, and their focus on Taiwan. China is desparately trying to grow its way out of major unrest by large swaths of the country. Not to mention their huge pollution problems, especially with all the coal plants they intend to build. I visited Beijing in 2003. It is a smoky looking city. The distant mountains were hazed out of view. My friend from ChongChing informed me that most people generally ignore the ruling Communist government (they think it is rather irrelevant and out of touch with the people). It might not take