I've been hearing very contradictory opinions on this one, so I just wanna see how ET members predict it.
The incumbent always has an advantage in an election. I am sure he will get his second term. No matter what goes wrong in the next year. Look at Clinton. He had so many scandals. And he got his second term.
He's made this country too comfortable, and he doesn't stand up well to criticism without a war or terrorism to fight. I think that the N. Korea thing will be fixed within the next 6 months, and if Iraq, Afghanistan, and, most importantly, the economy, haven't been handled well at that point he's in trouble. That would leave an entire year of campaigning in which democrats can harp on all of these problems. There just seems like there will be too many problems at the time of the next election. On the other hand, the economy is looking better (in the past few weeks) post invasion, and if there is anything that helps an incumbent, it's improving prospects for the future of the economy. Remember that most elections are ruled by one key issue, and if things are looking up at the time of the election, he will win. Plus, people will think he's a world beater if he pulls off this democratic transition without the UN screwing it up.
I think Clinton got his second term due to prosperous economic conditions, something not currently available to Bush. Also not too many seem to forget the ballot voting and the moto "he didn't win in the first place", but what confuses me the most is that there isn't any democrat available who could challenge him. The democrats proudly brag that "whoever runs will win", and "who was George W. Bush before becoming president ? A nobody!". I think it's gonna be a very close one!
The economy will rule the day for Bush. All we need are fools willing to pay $100 bucks for a share of Microsoft, double what a house cost just a few years ago, and to stop looking over their shoulders thinking that they might be next in a corporate downsizing. Afew exaggerated earnings reports wouldn't hurt either. The guy is a shoe-in.
George W. is a LOCK for re-election. It's the fact, jack. He's the overwhelming favorite (70% probable), and money talks. and BS walks... too many disgruntled democrats around here. Jesse
Not exactly true. He has a 70% plus "job approval" rating - but to this point, only 51% have indicated a willingness to vote for him, and that's without a named opponent. As you so eloquently put it: That's a fact, Jack.
Jesse, If you're talking about the war approval, that's correct, the rate even stands at 74%, but so what ? His father had the same support during the previous gulf war, and let's not recall what happened when he bumped against Clinton.
or his "war rating". I'm talking about Las Vegas odds which place the odds at 70% for him to win re-election. In plain math, you can put up $7 to win $3 that he's re-elected. For all of you fools who think he WON'T be re-elected. You can put up only $3 to win $7 (over 2 to 1!!). So put your money where your mouths are, and take the 2 to 1. Otherwise, shut up. goto tradesports to see the same line. Jesse