futures show 90% chance of 25 bp cut So he will definetely cut another 25 bp and probably even 50 if stocks go down another 200 points On October 31 Oil will hit 100 Gold 800 Euro 1.5 Dow 14500 Inflation 1%
He will cut as much as he can get away with. 25 bps is my guess now, but 50 bps if the market tanks much more until month-end.
Uhhh.... cut to 1%? That's what caused all of the problems to begin with. Rates were too low then everyone bought houses and they found out they were screwed when rates had to be raised. It's like delaying a car crash.
I guess; Ben needs one more excuse to cut rate; the market didn't crash yet; so wall street wants a cut on Halloween; it has to crash the market to get it; and push the note/bond yield down further.
The Fed is so slimy that he will probably do the opposite of what a reasonable person would conclude from remarks prior [to the cut].
25 at minimum. At work on the afternoon he cut 50, I wandered into the office of an Indian co-worker of mine. I said, "Wow. He did 50." He said "Stupid thing to do." I was taken aback, figuring after all, that this guy was printing bucks on his longs at that hour. But I figured it out that night. He's more pro-Indian than pro his portfolio, and he knew that 50 was going to make it tougher to outsource to India. Rupee's up 10% on the dollar so far this year. So, what happens today? Paulson and the rest of the G-7 said that China needed to increase the rate of change on the remnimbi. What we have here, folks, is a game of chicken. The Fed will cut until the Chinese (and the Indians and all the rest) finally throw in the towel. Or vice versa. We're nowhere near finding out who's going to blink first.