Will 2003 be as good as 2002?

Tea · Dec 25, 2002

We seem to be in a pause period, kind of like just before the last gulf war in December 1990. The start of the war is probably what will get the market moving. Bush said something about January 27th being a decision date.

Not hoping for war, just making an observation.

uptik2000 · Dec 25, 2002

i agree with silk as far as trading conditions have been. seem to be just as good if not better than last year.

for my 2003 prediction: your trading year will only be as good as you want it to be.

harrytrader · Dec 26, 2002

I don't think 2003 will be a very quiet year ...
projection on monthly scale
http://perso.wanadoo.fr/harrytrader/market/dji/today/cours_Plan_SPOT1m.swf

Volatily and time acceleration is explained by my model to tests of upper scale supports or resistance (weekly and monthly or even yearly) when they "come down" to intraday scale.

Quote from vegasoul:

I think there is many studies that suggest volatility is cyclical...

which might mean the volatility is likely to tame down a bit next

year..
More...

thunderbolt · Dec 26, 2002

Quote from silk:

Its funny to read so many posts about how "poor" the day trading environment has become. In my opinion it has never been better. It is unlikely that we will see a year as volatile as 2002. Daily ranges on the SP500 have been over 15 points for the past 6 months and the VIX over 30.

However, I'm hoping that much of the volatility will continue. The hedge funds have taken over and they make the markets crazy. The market of the 90's was dictated by the index funds and other large funds getting the 401k money. I think hedge funds are the new "marginal" buyer and seller of stocks. They are now setting the prices.

I believe the hedge funds are a big part of my day trading success. Has anyone noticed more this year than in the past, that the market has become like a light switch, either "on" or "off". It has become very predictable at times. Nobody buys unless the market is going up, nobody sells unless it is going down. The bull/bear mkt cycle has been reduced to 2 months. The winning game plan has definitely been to go with the flow and let the reversal beat you. Investors are so gunshy right now that they will not buy weakness. So the weak stocks get weaker, strong get stronger.

The current market environment has rewarded my system of buying strength, selling weakness. There is little reward in this market for bottom fishing or top fading. I think this is because the hedge funds are all trend followers and buy with reckless abandon until the trend reverses.

I beileve that the hedge fund time horizon is a period of days or a few weeks. So as long as i'm daytrading and sticking to the trend, i will not be whipsawed often. Because the hedge fund trend followers stick to the trend for several days.

All my worst trading days in 2002 were from bottom picking or shorting strength. I can only think of a few days where i got hurt by a reversal (after the 10:15 whipsaw period) and none of those instances were that bad.

As long as the VIX is above 30, daytrading will be good, IMO.
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Hey, I'm with you. '02 has been my best year as volatility has been very consistent and profitable.

BOLT

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Will 2003 be as good as 2002?

Tea

uptik2000

harrytrader

thunderbolt