Does 1340 hold or does it get taken out? Time frame: the next month. Looks like there is either a nice W bottom pattern setting up or a head and shoulders that has to resolve lower.
You know what I think is interesting ... Even though the market doesn't initially like ascending interest rate policy, following this past bear (2001/2002), the time they started raising signalled the beginning of a bull. (and lowering rates actually is bearish) My gut says the rate rhetoric is in full swing right now to talk crude down more than anything else. If it comes down, I think we're holding pat for a little bit longer. If crude falls back down to earth, who knows ... this may be a buying opp of a lifetime. Looking at some regional bank balance sheets right now and I have to say that there appears to be opportunity just as long as short int. rates don't go to 8-15%.
See, I always say if you can say this then you wouldn't mind repeating it with a loaded gun next to your loaf. There is no certainty at retail level analysis, nor there is certainty at any level.
FWIW I will chip in by saying that monthly chart is still bearish, so ultimately it still sets the tone to lower term charts. Will 1340 hold? Nobody knows. What if 1335 will hold or 1330 or 1320? Support doesn't always come in exactly based on historic levels, therefore 1340 may hold with a 100 point stop More important question would have been (ImPO) at what level do we resurrect the bull? Again would have been impossible to answer, what's more important are market conditions & at the moment they are not there yet to consider continuation of the bull market.