Why You Should Go Short Tomorrow

I believe there will be no cut also & I believe market should go up until Wednesday. Just a humble man's opinion.

 

You won't get very far here with that attitude. This is the realm of the know it all teenage daytrader.

 

Obviously we did trend lower today into the afternoon.

I bought some SPY puts today (129 and 130 strike) that added to my position I started yesterday.

I still think my outlook is correct.

 

With the good day today, I added some more puts to my position in the afternoon, making the cost basis around the current price of them.

The New Home Sales were down to 604,000, actually below my expectation of 615,000, and less than the market was expecting.

Durable goods and consumer confidence numbers are coming tomorrow. I have no expectation for the Durables number, as I don't really keep track or study that. Consumer confidence came in at 88.6 last time, with the market expecting between 86 and 87. I am still looking for below 86.6, representing a lower reading on the consumer.

Let's see what we do tomorrow.

 

POSTED ON 1/28/2008

Did you get your ass kicked today? The market was up 177 points. This is why no one should listen to this nonsense.

 

POSTED ON 1/28/2008 Spx up 23.35 points today.

What happend to your SPY puts? Can you please share this with us?

 

market will rally on durable goods..

 

They are around where I bought them. Added some more today:

SPY Feb 2008 129 Puts - $1.31 cost basis
SPY Feb 2008 131 Puts - $1.90 cost basis
SPY Feb 2008 140 Puts - $4.40 cost basis

And, to limit my risk through volatility on the options, did some put spreads and call credit spreads in QQQQ and SPY ETFs. Did a 46/48 debit put spread on the Qs for $1.40 and a call credit spread on SPY (135/138) for a $1.60 credit.

Although I'm still hanging by my outlook, I'm willing to admit my mistake if my outlook should prove false. (And, please be aware that my positions aren't huge, 5-8 contracts each position).

 

STFU stock turd3r, your one-way train derailed along time ago. Smart money is either already short or getting short. Any rally in the next several sessions is a selling opp. How's that index doing?

 

It's pretty funny, the OP actually correctly predicted the negative housing report today, but what he failed to consider was the twisted way wallstreet thinks:

negative housing report = more rate cut chance = rally, therefore negative housing report = rally