That's just a conclusion I have derived form seeing all the homebuilders and analysts saying they still see deteriorating conditions and lower home-building revenue and sales. Just my opinion.
There will be a blip up in home sales at some point as those that were priced out come in and buy. That will occurr in the range when prices go to an affordable level relative to salaries and at a level wwhere banks are prepared to make a loan and keep it on their books (requires collateral and conservative valuation therrof). that blip will be brefly annull and subsequently be overshadowed by the carnage caused by the effect of those prices to the overleveraged crowd.
Promise me if you plan on shorting before the fed, you'll record a youtube of yourself as you do it. Just for infamy sake. I think Benny boy is just trying to spank the dog to show him whose boss. Quarter-Point Alan left some big shoes to fill and I think Ben knows if he doesn't get control and have the market looking at him for leadership, he will never be effective. I just worry how close to 0 we will get before this thing really takes hold.
I would be a buyer for SPY above 135.47 and a seller below 133.30 with $2.17 in risk. If the market gaps above/below my long/short entry price i would not enter into any trades. http://dividendgrowth.blogspot.com/2008/01/some-charts-to-watch.html
Not sure about shorting tomorrow. But I am glad I went net long overnight. I was fearful going long with all the recent volatility but I pushed the trigger. Asia is doing great tonight so we will get a nice pop tomorrow. Extreme VIX will deflate as we are going up in the next few days (weeks?). Then we may drop again.
Once this bailout/handout craze is finished (with the Fed on Monday), the focus should be back on data, i.e., declining growth, mostly slowing earnings (with a few bright spots like MSFT) and more credit market problems. There were only 2 major U.S. releases this week, and one of them (initial jobless claims) uses some funny math. With so little news, it was a great week for a cut and stimulus package. Wait till ISM Manufacturing, NFP, retail sales, housing data, etc. comes out, as well as who-knows-what news from the banks and monolines. Then we'll see what this rally is made of.
Stop trying to predict what "might happen" and trade the fucking tape. I can count the number of actual traders here on one hand. A real trader can trade long or short at any given moment and does not really give a rat's ass which way the river is flowing as long as he is in the boat. This Châteauneuf du Pape tastes oh so nice.