Curious as to why someone would post the mechanics of their strategy on forums such as these. My first impulse, if I had a working system, would be to keep it under wraps since if too many traders found out about it, it would quickly dissipate the effects of the system.
I'd rather ask Bush to help me out rather than asking a community. Thanks GOD, I was right about it. Label yourself as a patriot as I do and that's all you need. In fact, if you are smart enough, I've shared with you a strategy that will work better if more people adopt it.
Glad to know I'm not the only skeptic out there. My guess is that while most people would like to find the holy grail through these forums, you can only count on advice for more practical items (what software to use, tax preparation tricks, etc.) and to find like minded people to shoot the sh*t with during the trading day (in an otherwise lonely profession). To those less skeptical than I, please post your thoughts as to what would motivate you to tell the world your winning techniques (I doubt the most famous traders out there have ever truly shared their systems at a detailed level while they were still using them).
Very few people on this forum do share much specific information about their strategies. We've just started a couple new threads in an experiment to see if we can chip through that barrier somewhat. (Organized Systems Sharing) Personally, I don't claim to have anything fantastic, and even if it were fantastic I can't see how it would be harmed by other people knowing about it. So I'm willing to share what I do if anyone may care to hear it. And the other thing, most people on here are attached to their own methods, and are not too inclined to try out someone else's methods, even if they may be more successful than their own.
Some people gain a certain satisfaction out of giving others a leg up and some people don't. In any case, if your system were to fall apart in the event that someone "discovered" its secrets, it might not be that much of a system. --Db
Hi a & db have pretty much summed it up, but I would take a look also at http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=15698&perpage=20&pagenumber=2 for the origins of the idea. The continuation can be found here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=15880 & most recently here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=16005. Enjoy, rlb
For me personally, my systems are so simple...I do not think they are my own. If my systems were to stop working then the market would really need to be doing something different then it ever has. I do not feel that if I share with another trader what I have discovered is revealing my magic formula or holy grail. In the past.....every time I have shared an idea or a system with someone....I have received back a little gem of an idea with a different perspective. So, When I share, I generally expect something in return...and it never has failed....I have been able to improve in my trading by sharing. This community is the most advanced group on the Internet...I have not found better... Michael B.
i read others' ideas to learn more about how other people think, and in the hopes that one of those ideas might trigger a brainstorm for me. personally...i have no problem saying my general idea, but specifics? nah, i keep those to myself and a few others. however, i'm also sure that i could give the way i trade to some people, and even though i'd be able to trade well using it, they wouldn't necessarily have the discipline to do so.
Not sure if this necessarily true. The pre-earnings swing play is a classic example. Before it became conventional wisdom, professional traders were making a fortune buying a couple of weeks before earnings and selling just before or after the release. But, as more people learned of the strategy, traders began selling increasingly ahead of the earnings release until the pattern gradually lost it's persistency. I personally have come up with some equity trading strategies that when played out as small bets, would work out well. However, if multiple players jumped in making the same play, I can definitely see the returns dwindle significantly (for this reason I'm not giving any specifics!). I'm sure there's something in game, arbitrage, or efficient market theory that would mathematically pan this out. Anyway, don't mean to beat a dead horse. Despite the postings of several optimists, I think the poll results are gradually telling the true story.