why would a US citizen short China?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by qdz3se, Apr 26, 2004.

  1. qdz3se


    The government is buying. Why would you sell? See the productivity potential of China, you won't think about sell once. Chinese productivity is where American companies can help and will get big bucks from. Buy now!

    100% up room to go.

  2. def

    def Sponsor

    There is always a reason to selectively short a market. e.g: H-share futures were down 6% yesterday. Some of the individual stocks down 15%. There is a big difference between a buy and hold strategy and active trading.
  3. qdz3se


    Hello def, long time no seeing. How's it going? Are you and your colleagues going to Hawaii this summer. Company trip and escorts paid? Have a good one.

    Okay I see you point, there has to be some speculators around to make a market profitable for others. So be it. But I personally won't get involving in shorting China. Heard that some of richest shorters just got bankrupted when Greenspan spoke something last week.


  4. that argument have been valid for the past 200yrs, and it's only the recent decade that that potential been tap. Chinese are the hardest working people in the world.

    China is a bubble that is going burst very soon. the political system is fundatmentally incompatible with capitalism. the income disparity is the highest in the world and corruption is rampant, the financial system is on course for a major collaspe. things are just not what they seem.

    But you need to talk to the Chinese people to REALLY know what's going on. when I ask them what's the oppuntunities in china nowadays, I get the same answer everytime, property/stock speculation. Credit driven speculation and not investment in technology or productivity. that's what really scares me.

    no matter what, the bull market is ripe for a correction, even the chinese government acknowleadge the overheating of the economy and are taking measures to calm it down, and when the communists admit there is something wrong, you know the problem is very very serious.

    too bad there isn't a lot of ways to short into it.
  5. qdz3se


    Chinese market down on SARS worry, not a big deal. Good buy opportunity. The summer heat is gonna kill the virus pretty quick.

  6. def

    def Sponsor

    I've said this a few times but you should check your facts before you post. You'd possibly come across a touch brighter. The H-share index is down 17% in the last two weeks, see attached 15 day chart.
  7. However, a big part of the asset bubble in real estate and stocks is because of the hot money flowing into China. Everybody is bringing U.S. dollars in betting on an appreciation of the RMB. If the RMB appreciates by 5% and there is no change in asset values, being short will cost you 5%.