From the list river posted, it looks like it is not possible for you to get on the stated path with your predictive models. You said you got the idea from an anonymous poster named “cheese.” Did you apply the same standard to cheese and his followers (if he had any) before going down that path? I’m thinking the answer is no. Let’s be candid. In any worthwhile activity that requires knowledge, skill and experience, most people do not reach competency. Very few reach expertise. Even fewer are able to reach expertise and illuminate a path to help others reach it as well. Jack Hershey did both. From my viewpoint, that’s all that needs to be said to anyone asking about the man. Currently his writings are still available in the public domain for anyone to discover.
Correct. That may very well be. I don't know of any followers of Cheese. I only ever read his posts and probably a zillion times trying to read between the lines and picking up some pieces here and there in order to inspire my own studies and research eventually resulting in what I call a predictive/statistical model which is simply based on statistics and facts about how the market trades day by day. I have no idea if what I created is similar to what Cheese claimed to have. I say claim because at this point I no longer take anything I read on the internet at face value. There's a huge difference between Cheese and Jack Hershey, though. Cheese never attempted to mentor anyone, nor did he make any specific claims about performance. He was just a casual poster on ET while Jack was actively teaching/mentoring on ET and making fairly grand claims as far as I can understand it. Interestingly, there does seem to be some similarities between the two approaches, though, in terms of extracting the full offer of the market and trading price movement up/down with a neutral viewpoint. What I like about the statistical approach is that it's based on numbers and facts. Not assumptions that may or may not be true. I also think there's some misconceptions about predicting as a prediction is not written in stone. The general idea is that one scenario is more probable than the other (with weighted probabilities), but it's rarely if ever a 100 % probability. And a good predictive model should use updated data to make sure everything is progressing as predicted/anticipated and switch to a different scenario if the initial prediction proved wrong and new data suggets something else is more likely. Maybe a weather forecast could be a good analogy as you'd be stupid to not take out your umbrella if it starts raining even if the forecast said it would be a sunny day. In my view, every trade decision for a directional trader is a form of prediction. If you go long, you're assuming price will go up. You may say you're just following price, but you wouldn't go long unless you had some kind of signal/trigger or conviction that made you think price would go up from your entry. Maybe. I think trading is very different from most activities, though. I would say I'm a competetent engineer without having put that much effort into it. Engineering is a science with thousands of books, resources and colleagues/mentors to learn from, so it's just a matter of problem solving and answering questions as they arises either on your own or through the huge amount of resources most have at their hand as this is usually done within a corporate environment for the average engineer. In trading, you're in the jungle and you're alone. It took me a while to realize that and it obviously makes it a more difficult path. As for Jack, I'm not a detractor and actually enjoyed his posts a lot. Maybe I'll find some time to delve even deeper in the future. I really wish he'd taken the time to write a complete book from A to Z. I'm sure it would have been interesting. But like I alluded to earlier, if the path he illuminated is better than other paths possible, I'm wondering why there's seemingly so few profitable students of him.
What other paths are you referring to? Can you give or point to an example? You keep referring to his students and their lack of success. Do you personally know any “students” of his and their level of success or lack thereof? I met a large group of people, many from this site, at one Vegas meet up. In none of my conversations did the topic come up.
You are very welcome. The post I shared from Jack was meant to be thought-provoking to the trader checking their own decisions at those various forks in the road on their journey. Yes, to both--if by student you simply mean someone who made a concerted effort over a significant period of time to understand Jack's PVT and SCT principles and apply some of that knowledge to their own methodology. In his post above, Jack illuminated a learning path but I doubt if there is such a thing as THE learning path. I'm not a "follower" of Jack nor of anyone else. I trade the river methodology which does happen to incorporate some the principles Jack advocated but it is not SCT. I always assumed Jack's claims of what was possible was mostly hyperbole. I don't know why anyone would bother posting their trading results on an anonymous message board. --river
I think you and JH would refer to it as the conventional path or conventional wisdom, so I'm sure you know that better than me. I would assume the conventional path would mean classical texts on TA, mainstream knowledge, courses, vendors, Al Brooks or what have you. Well, I've been around here for a while and I've seen numerous students here on the boards and I've seen nothing to suggest that they've achieved any kind of success worth boasting about. Some have even admitted it upfront. With others, it's just as much what they're not saying as what they're actually saying. Do you know anything I do not know on the subject? Was this large group of people you met cleaning up the markets on a daily basis or was it just not a subject for some other reason...?
Okay. Thanks. If you should happen to have any other interesting documents lying around I'd appreciate a copy. I already have an archive on my computer of JH stuff, including a compiled summary I wrote myself, so I may have a lot already, but always interested in reading more. Again, it's a pity that Jack didn't write a complete book (or several) from A to Z instead of > 50.000 posts scattered all over the place, but maybe that was on purpose and by design. If it was hyperbole, I don't see the purpose of doing so. Surely that would be misleading his followers and even a disservice to his fellow man. If Jack's claims about what was possible was hyperbole then that makes the rest of what he said questionable as well. Surely, some of the claims put forth (for example volume always leading price, YM always leading, etc.) just don't hold up. As for posting trading results on an anonymous message board - why not? In the popular Market Wizards series the interviews always start with a performance summary. If they couldn't back up their performance I don't think they'd be featured in those books. I see some here posting their trading results and I don't see any harm in doing so. I can understand the desire for secrecy, but sadly, I think it's just as likely that results are not posted because they're just not that good. That's not directed at you personally. Just a general observation. Thank you.
I wrote “mostly hyperbole”. Whenever I’d read his statements of profit potential, I knew there would be people taking out their HP12C’s and believing Jack meant they could own the world in just a few months—if only trading was that easy! When Jack said beginners could make 5 to 7% in nine minutes, which is only two points on the ES at $1500 margin, I never believed he meant, “5 to 7% every nine minutes, all day long, regardless of the trader’s account value.” Haven’t there been times when you made two ES points within nine minutes? Funny. Volume leading price and the YM leading the ES at points of change are two principles I use in my trading that I specifically took from Jack’s methodology. I recommend dropping the “always”. I don’t take it personally and I genuinely wish you the best. I have little interest in debating anything here in ET. I shared Jack’s comments to be helpful, I thought it could be valuable to either you or the neophyte self-learner mentioned by savoir since I knew the post was no longer available in the ET archives. --river
Yes I know the path of conventional wisdom with vendors strewn along its sides. Travelled it myself for awhile; best to avoid it. Since you seem to have taken an unconventional path it was unclear to me what other paths you were referring to. So to you anyone who reads his posts on a message board and decides to learn about his methods is his “student”? You use the term very loosely. To me they are self-learners. Maybe it’s a generational thing but I don’t find it common to discuss how much money anyone is making at a social gathering. I’m sure the people there were at all levels from beginners to the very experienced. Some travelled long distances from Europe to attend.
I'm not sure the exact definition is important, but yes, it would seem natural to me to refer to anyone who's studying JH (or anyone else) as students of his teachings. As Jack is no longer around self-learners seems accurate, though. Oh, for sure, I'm not the one who's nosy about what other people make. Can't recall ever asking anyone in real life. But if I attended a meet-up dedicated to a specific trading methodology it's possible I'd be blunt enough to at least ask if anyone was making any money so far with said methodology. Trading is after all about making money - and the more the better. If I showed up at a fitness conference and everyone was fat, it's possible I'd excuse myself and find the bar instead. If anyone is curious about what I make or lose, I'm usually very transparent about it. This is because I like to brag when I'm doing well and I also like to keep myself humble and in check when I'm not. Also, I don't want to lead anyone on and make them think something which isn't true. Best to keep things honest. It can be therapeutical and even a relief.
I think that when you are discussing trading it would be quite common to ask what kind of returns other traders are experiencing. It doesn't have to be in dollar terms you can answer in percentage terms. I wouldn't be too upset if someone asked if the returns were actual dollars of demo dollars. I don't know what my actual returns are. Because I withdraw from my account when I need money I can't be bothered to do the calculations. I only know that they pay my expences and that my account size is growing year over year.