I would hope everyone has figured out that the reason the ETF volumes are relatively higher than some individual stock volumes is because the 2X and 3X leverage ETFs, especially the financial ones, are being used to pull the financial stocks up. The ETFs are leading.
I am in the camp that this is a rally in an ongoing bear market. Picking a top is treacherous however, and I salute the OP for taking a shot. He has a well-reasoned case. The S&P just took out its previous high for the year. There was little in the way of stop triggering observed. It just touched this obvious point and turned back. The combination of rising prices and falling volume has historically not been good for bulls. In addition, I have to think the volume numbers have been artificially boosted by the insane volume in some of the leveraged ETFs. The ZeroHedge blog has had a number of fascinating articles exploring the implications of quant funds getting blown up. It's too complex to summarize, except to say they are predicting an environment where huge volatility events are more likely due to decreased liquidity.
We're entering into a zone of confluence both in price and time. The market is relatively extended and eventually will revert to the mean. Because of the fact that extended markets can get even more extended, I'd wait until I see a reversal pattern within this zone and if market internals would start to stink, then Iâd start legging into an option spread that would make money if we go down or stay sideways.
stock_trad3r is the greatest contarian indicator on earth. noddy- it would seem then, that your contrarian indicator is "in the house": http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=161254
Hey Guys & Girls, Really just wanting to say hello to everyone on here and introduce myself. My name's Alex and am guessing and hoping we share similar interests in terms of trading markets etc so am glad I've found this forum with hopefully like minded individuals who may be able to share and exchange tips and info with me??? Anyway, hope to hear back from some of you out there in cyberspace, for now, thanks for reading... Warmest Regards Alex ps - It's a lovely Sunday afternoon here so should really be enjoying the weather but this forum is pretty addictive!!!
Sure hope it does! I know it has been rough on alot of people but it will be years before prices are ever this cheap again!
Yes, I posted that I would get out of my call position on Monday. I am thinking of that or buying puts--not sure.
Thanks to everyone who has participated in the thread so far. some interesting discussion here with only a minimum of bashing which is good considering what I named the thread, and expected to some degree because this is of course ET and I am an "evil vendor". As of this writing, 8:50pm EST, so far so good. The analysis seems to be bearing some fruit. Am short some ES from friday afternoon, along with the AGU and SPY, however the main thing is where to further hit any new swing shorts tomorrow morning due to what may be a large gap down. This is one characteristic of the current market, that its rather gappy and as such often "doesn't let you in". We like HON, VZ, PTRY short amongst others. Would like to add to SPY short anywhere below 85.30 which is the main trendline.
seems a number of people are watching this ascending wedge. I have been surfing around this weekend and have this topic in quite a few places..