I love Gnome and Trendguy posts. Thats all the motivation a person needs. Thought I was the odd man out cause i`m only "getting" it now after 6 years of screen watching. I can see another 6 easily to get where Gnome was giddy for 6 months. And i`m ok with that....
One more thing... I spent 10 years as a professional bowler, poker player, and pool hustler... and money "won" is much more satisfying than earning a salary. Winning money while trading the markets has much the same satisfaction.
unless you have the ability and connections etc to trade OPM and lead a healthy balanced life it is for sure a hard road full of potholes even if you reach the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow you might look back at say "so I got the money" now what ?
You have a narrow one sided view of the market and this is of a long buy and hold investor. A trader trades in all types of environments and just needs volatility. When market turn bad only long only/bullish only traders get burned. You are assuming that a trader is only a long position person. When the markets turned bad a lot of traders probably made a lot of money with the increased volatility. All the traders wiped out in the 2001 crash were long-term holders or scalpers with only a bullish bias. The traders who survivie year in and year out adapt to the market or have no bias, they simply trade in the direction that is being observed. Everyone of the market wizards traded through bears and bulls and it made no different to them. They would go short as easily as they would go long and that is why they made money consistently. I think the problem is not with the markets being good or bad, it is needing to define them as good or bad as a long/bullish only trader. I see no reason why you cannot make as much money in a strong bullish market as you can in a strong bearish market. Especially using options or futures and always adhering to risk management. What the market does is irrelevant to a good trader, it is how he or she trades it. I am not a market wizard by any stretch but I also have no biases in bull or bear, i just trade what I see month to month whether up or down. That is the key to longevity. All bear markets do is wash out long only traders.
Who cares about "good times"? With all due respect you sound like someone who thinks "good times" occur only when the market is heading higher. Any trader --- or any real trader who's been around more than a decade knows you have to play both sides of the market to make this a "career" longer term. And per you post I guess I'm "foolish" as this has been my career for quite a while, in up markets and down markets. And screw the MBA, I have 2 advanced degrees that served me well during my corporate career. Trading can be a long term career if one is truly willing to work --- just as one works hard to move up the corporate ladder. Granted there are people who think trading is like an ATM machine in a bull market. And there are others who think you can get by doing little work. Those wannabe traders tend to wash out quick. I for one have no fear of the good times ending for every day there are many opportunities in the market --- long or short. And every day money can be made in any market.
I notice you guys brought back up my "my life is starting at 33" thread. Im not new to the markets, I've traded for a while, but not at a hedge fund or prop firm. Im interested in seeing how their strategies are employed with this super-rate of margin however and day-to-day traders. What gave me the interest is actually Don Brite with his threads on his market neutral strategy. I did email him and asked if I could attend his trading school without actually going with Brite trading. Unfortunately, I cant. Don is a smart guy and I like his approach, although, still a little wary of prop firms. I do not daytrade. My type of trading is longing on momentum breakouts, riding the trend and then cashing out when price appears to enter the triangle. That way I can tend to more important things in life like my happy hour at the Grotto or the Taj. Right now Im on a plane and moving on to the next boom which is in airplane sales and leasing. hint hint wink wink. I also wonder how some of you guys trade with all your time spent on ET. Obviously not prop firm or hedge fund traders.
Gnome - thanks. Very good post. What do you guess AT? Without giving away your secrets (you may say there are no secrets other than KISS and stops) - do you guess at demand and supply of something, or an indicator, or a direction (and if so how do you 'guess' that?)? Do you see something before guessing?
Michael I could not disagree with you more. In fact, what you said is the complete opposite. Most traders struggle in low vol environments, i.e in bullish markets. Bullish markets are one of the toughest to trade (easy for investors). Generally most traders do well in highly volatile and liquid markets. This does not just have to be index markets but could also be commodity markets. There is no excuse with all the products offered around the world to be stuck trading bad products. Trading is the most challenging, yet most rewarding job in the world. To be able to independently support yourself without doing "deals" or trying to sell crap is quite an enlightening experience. I actually feel bad for the guy out there trying to hoc shit and convince people he is valuable and necessary to a business. The last few years have actually been very challenging for most traders, but things are starting to pick up. Besides, this is the only job I know where YOU control your destiny, not some corporation or individual that needs to buy your product so you can put food on the table.
Michael you sound like you are a career salesman,,, stick to what you know. It is not appropriate to educate and lecture people in a field that you have not worked or spent much time in.