to explain why is to explain part of the method to the public let me just say that i am not against confirmations but i would referase it differently: there maybe signals that consist of two parts (one is triggering part, anther one is confirmation part ) and then there are signals in which triggering part will suffice
The Long: Wedge tight channel down..then sideways (yellow lines) then BO of the range. Market cycle is range..BO (can be spike) ..then channel (..tight channel...broad channel), then range...then bo..etc. So we get a wedge in a tight channel down then sideays (range) then a B0 so waiting to see a channel (that starts after first pb). Will this be a successful reversal? For me it is again important to see some counter PA i.e. buying pressure before taking a position. So, we get BO of yellow range. Then a pb so a channel starts. Then a second pb giving a second entry. Notice Gap ( green box) between pb’s and B.O. point.. that is indicative of buying pressure holding. A trader could take the first entry but I would wait for the second entry. Once I see this gap between bottom of pbs’s and the B.O. point holding I am going long on the second entry (H2). Stop loss in either case is the BO point or just inside the top of the yellow range. PT is good for at least a scalp but since the up counter move was made via a tight bull channel (blue circle) and gap holding (green box) i would swing this for a second leg up. ENDED up being a measured move up from bottom of range (yelllow) to PB’s area to top of second leg. So, i would have taken second entry long and held for two legs up. Why wait for these entries instead of going long at the bottom of the range or at the BO point. Because you got a tight channel and wedge down to the range and since most attempts at reversals in trends fails (and prev PA was a bear trend leg down) a trader risks the sideways range just being a bear flag. Furthermore, 80’s of BO attempts of a range fail. Price trades to the top or bottom of the range and reverses, or breaks out for a bit then promptly reverses back into the range. Traders get whip-sawed. But when a BO actually appears to succeed in the form of a tight micro channel up to the first pb then that pb followed by a second pb and both follwed with a gap holding ...well that is a good sign. Buying pressure is the new kid on the block. Get out the bicycle and ride with the kid. Of course again...hindsight but good for learning...SOME PRINCIPLES...hopefully ...LOL HAPPY TRADING
Secrets?? ROFLMAO I suppose there may be a few secrets but I would’t worry about spilling the beans! Really! How many are going to believe my explanations as a valid way to trade. Maybe ONE person at most 3 in the ENTIRE ET forum. Probably “0” on this particular thread. At any rate, if someone did in fact relate to what I say they still have the execution/psychological issues to deal with so just understanding some strategies and tactics IS NOT going to make them become a successful trader. There really aren’t any secrets. It is all out in the open for all to see and judge. Just because I watch Tiger Woods play golf and can slow all his moves down in slow motion to watch every nuance, as he swings, does not mean i will play golf as good as he can. So telling your “secrets” isn’t going to stop your edge because most are not going to believe you to start with, and second, most will not practice enough to get good at it so.....so....so...i just wouldn't worry about spilling the frijoles. ¡Happy frijoles!
T Thanks for the thorough reply. In my opinion, shorting the low of a big bear bar as you suggest is quite risky. So often price will retrace the entire move, just testing the same area, and although it can turn down again, which means your two tickets stop above the high is fine, it's still a big stop! Also, on these last few days with low volume, the market has been driven down, only to reverse completely, so these big bear bars are in some ways manipulation. Anyway, I do like your style and thinking on the fly, and especially your reliance on context, so it's all good stuff.
I am not shorting the low of the big bar. Look at my second entry On the short trade (my first annotation of his chart). I am shorting 1 tick lower than the previous bar. And my stop is one or two ticks above the high of the high of the previous bar. Not sure where you got that I am shorting the low of the big bear bar and have a wide stop?
I don't use candles, I started long ago before computers and hand made my charts, but I see the same chart as you. Nq is often traded by either those starting out or professionals who will always be better than you as often times young traders will push NQ further along after Professionals already in. I have studied at great lengths for myself to understand what price does on lack of volume and often causes "wicks", if you study market profile, volume often looks like outline of a face, more volume in off center and much less on one side of a trending bar. I believe the wicks are caused by some professionals in NQ to draw in the inexperienced to nail the stops but much less so to actually make chart patterns. But I believe the new trader gets drawn into areas of wicks while non wick areas are where professionals are either taking profit or adding to their positions. For past 30 plus years, I am generally a scalper for intra-day, until year ago when I made my first day trading system-I never traded with the trend. Until I got into automation, never used stops, it be like an extra thing to remember, but now with automation, have to put in something. So my first targets is like $50-62 and I am risking $200-238, on weekly basis losses under 5%, and reasons are is I understand waves and swings lengths, ie. whereabouts will trend be considered to have changed. So if you getting stopped out much, widen the stop, but this does not mean to let the stop be hit, I think most traders know they have taken a bad position based on highs going way to much against them. They still Long, so to have reduced highs/lows, when you know trend has changed, next move up even at small loss, take it rather than be nailed for larger loss, stair stepping against our position not good way to be and if market rallies little, don't let "hope" come into your life=get out. "Time", many people don't spend enough dealing with "Time", going over past 3,000 trades, what in time captures 90% of you winning trades? So now you know using that amount, if a trade goes beyond this about of "time", make you new target your entry price, do it automatically so you won't allow "hope" to sneak in. As far as "Language", I understand you just fine, I think your questions are better than most and most don't study the markets themselves, they work at making systems. NQ might be wanting for reports of how the underlying stocks are posting earnings, or government reports, world reports, interest rates and like Italy can make a moving market or stall it, are tariffs going to happens as that is tech, so there is much waiting till time is over for waiting, and sometimes HFTs can start a movement in NQ, less in the ES. Hmmm, art is years of backtesting and just many many hours of looking at just one chart. I started something long ago using one chart which I still have, day session of it, apply a name to each bar, but each bar has to be tested before you can give it a name and it can be in with a group of bars, but the more time you study the charts, more tested stats you will have. The longer you are a trader, you develop an understand of where you get in makes so little indifference so long as you can read a char, so traders do breakouts and often times where they getting in, I am taking profit on half my position, I can't stand breakouts, they are "feel good" entries at a cost, larger stops and less profit potential. And no, I stopped mentoring, working on other project. Good luck.
My bad. Yes, I understand what you say now. Your short would therefore have been at 7170.50, which is one tick below the bar in question, and your stop would have been around 7176.
Spot on, have to factor this in I guess. Here is another good example from today regarding what you said 1: Longer chart of NQ, you can see previous low. We make a LL, yet my edge is screaming to me buy NQ so I do at 7:35 PT 2: zoomed up 5min.... IT is very scary buying this for NQ after such a hard drop in which we make a lower low but my edge is telling me to get long at 7:35 PT so i do, and all other majors start rallying and are confirming this trade's validity...However notice the 2nd wick that makes a lower low after 735 only for NQ 3: ES zoomed at 7:35 4:Russell at 7:35 PT 5:YM at 7:35 PT So just like the first post, entered at an awesome level, then stopped out due to noise of NQ...and get back in after price takes off many points higher sighh