Why Trading is so Hard

Discussion in 'Psychology' started by John9999, Oct 27, 2018.

  1. smallfil

    smallfil

    Yeah, because we have to spoon feed these babies or they will cry? You think the hedge funds care as they take your monies? They will also, take every last cent out of your pockets! Arrogant people in the stockmarket lose the most monies! They believe their BS as they lose their monies!
     
    #31     Oct 28, 2018
  2. Palindrome

    Palindrome

    • Most people don't have enough capital, or current income to support the fight
    • There is no real place to practice, you are competing against some sophisticated MotherF*****
    • You have no edge, or have not taken the time to develop a real edge
    • you are not patient enough to execute the edge even if you have one
    • It takes many many years of study to get really good, people don't have the patience to take the time to learn
    • People are lazy
     
    #32     Oct 28, 2018
  3. themickey

    themickey

    My impression but I could be wrong, for retail traders, it best suits loners.
    They have the time and not the distractions, also they as loners can make their own rules, not swayed so much by crowd group think and conformity.
     
    #33     Oct 28, 2018
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  4. Magic

    Magic

    Interested to hear opinions from guys that have long term expirence in this realm, like @sle or @rallymode (@destriero if you want to weigh in?). What returns do you guys think are realistic and sustainable for an intelligent retail trader staying at relatively small size (say 500k - 1MM)?

    Discounting having a serious edge, there still seem to be a few low-hanging iterative refinements available with modeling high level market tendencies and being willing to eat more volatility as long as you’re confident it still has no risk of ruin.

    A stock index makes 9% CAGR or whatever over the long haul. Studies have found that a more diversified portfolio with mild leverage can add a few hundred bps to that. There’s a few known phenomena like consistent vol con tango and the inability to sustain very high IVs over the long haul that allow for capturing excess returns in certain market conditions if you size properly, although they may be few and far in between.

    Where does the curve for trading drop off or become really path dependent? Trading is so far from a binary process that I have a hard time pinning down what I should even be aiming for. Thoughts on any of the above?
     
    #34     Oct 28, 2018
    yc47ib likes this.
  5. speedo

    speedo

    I would hate to have your trade plan :D
     
    #35     Oct 28, 2018
  6. wildchild

    wildchild

    Trading is a zero-sum game. Your profits come at the cost of someone else. Why would someone give their money? Its that simple.
     
    #36     Oct 28, 2018
    smallfil likes this.
  7. schweiz

    schweiz

    If that's the case you should or stop immediately, or throw away that system and build a real one.
    Make no money after +50 trades??????
     
    #37     Oct 28, 2018
  8. sle

    sle

    If the overall expectation is positive, why not?
     
    #38     Oct 28, 2018
    IAS_LLC likes this.
  9. qlai

    qlai

    Don't want to speak for @southall, but aren't long term trend capturing systems have this kind of characteristics? I m thinking Turtle traders.
     
    #39     Oct 28, 2018
  10. schweiz

    schweiz

    Because making 50 trades without making profits is the ultimate proof of the inability to build a system that would perform even average of what you might expect.

    There should be a minimum of positive expectation. 50 trades without making profits will result in trading to make nickels and dimes. That's not the level of positive expectation a capable trader will accept. The risk reward ratio will be massively out of line with what would be the minimum necessary to take the risk of 50 trades.
     
    #40     Oct 28, 2018
    PistolPete likes this.