Why trading educators talk about entries 95% of the time?

volpri · May 24, 2020

tradingismybusiness said:
he scrambled once i had him under the gun.
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I didn’t scramble I had company. I came back. Now don’t you scramble because I am holding your feet to the fire. Lol. Take a few days to play around with your concepts on a platform even a sim and post the charts showing us how it works in trading, not theory. Then spell it out for me to test it side by side myself. I don’t have a high IQ and obviously need clear step by step on how to test it out ..your way beside my way...step by step. Do it first yourself ..practice it..and post the chart with the trades then tell me exactly how to test them side by side. I will certainly test them.

Just don’t tell me to tape some stupid note by my monitor saying “only losers average down”. No disrespect to Mr Tudor. Maybe for him that is true. Not true for me and I have posted my charts with trades in my journal showing clearly how averaging down works for me.

I have yet to see a single chart with platform posted trades on it by you. While I am open to your idea just “show” us trading, even if on a sim.
Thanks

SimpleMeLike · May 24, 2020

tradingismybusiness said:
i am against averaging down and even exoerienced traders will tell you..never average down
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tradingismybusiness,

Do you day trade the small time frame charts?

Volpri clearly has repeated why he likes averaging in positions almost 30 times to you already, that works for him and it makes sense when you trading in short time span as it is challenging to get decent risk tolerance position.

Let me charm in here as an active small timeframe day trader. I trade the 3 minute chart.

There is NOTHING wrong with averaging into a losing position. I trade 1 contract, and there is many many times, price goes against me even though I have high probability of a win in the trade and WANT to average in with 1 or 2 contracts to get a better price. The stop loss can remains the same to exit all positions.

If you trade everyday, you will clearly understand averaging into a position losing or winning is perfectly fine to do, if that fits your personality.

NOW, if you being a clown and monkeying around and averaging in and in and keep moving your stop loss back and back again cause you don't want to take the loss, then you going to get wiped out and get your butt in trouble. I don't think Volpri is doing that. He just simply averaging in to his position man. He knows when to exit for a loss, if his premise is changing.

For example, am I enter long at green arrow. Am I wrong for entering long at purple arrow again (average in)? NOOOOO, I am not. My stop loss is at red arrow. Heck, I can average in more if price keeps going down. I KNOW I am in a high probability trade of a win. And I KNOW I am exiting at blue arrow. Volpri is simply saying he will average in until red arrow if wants too and average out at blue arrow if he wants too.

There is nothing wrong with that man. That is what makes sense to him and makes him happy. And he making the money this way. The average in to losers talk is for new traders just getting in the market and do not know how to read the charts and manage the risks. I personally do not average in or out of trades, still getting my skills rights.

Please let me know if that makes sense to you now.

Slope Trader · May 24, 2020

volpri said:
In trading an “edge” is a mathematical advantage. It basically means that if a trader takes enough trades of a certain type that he will, over a period of time, he will be profitable. Traders have to learn to structure their trades in ways that give them an edge; a mathematical advantage, if they want to be consistently profitable over time. The problem is edges can fleeting and are small. And edges need to be based on math which some call an “exact science”. Others say it is not an exact science. Nevertheless, at the bare minimum math seeks to use logic to understand and prove logic between quantities and objects. The problem in applying math to the market is that the market is not exact and it is full of uncertainty. Hence, a mathematical advantage is always going to be small. And it can be fleeting. That is, it happens quickly and can disappear quickly. But the good news is that is all that is needed to be profitable.

So traders have to structure their trades with scenarios or setups that involve entries, initial SL’s, initial PT’s based upon an edge they have found or discovered and employ. But that is not the end of the story. They now have “manage” the trade for a mathematical advantage which involves execution, on the fly adjustments of SL’s and PT’s within the dynamics of the trade as it unfolds. Since the market is filled with uncertainty no SL’s or PT should be set in stone. They all need to be adjustable but also have a mathematical logic, behind the initial setting of SL’s and PT’s, and any subsequent adjustment that is based upon “how” (i.e. the dynamics) the market is unfolding, in respect to the trade taken.

If you follow my journal I structure averaging down to give me a mathematical advantage. An edge. Even though the gurus “choke on their spittle” over the concept. I also take what I call straight scalps, long or short, with no averaging down.

When in this “structuring moment” of the trade it is only the INITIAL structure, based upon a mathematical logic. And is for SETTING the entry, initial SL’s, and initial PT. All those things are subject to adjustment as the trade unfolds (i.e. the dynamics or the “how” price is being made) EXCEPT my entry. You have doubtless heard (from the guru’s lol) that the only thing you can control is your SL and some might say your profit target, or PT for abrev. I would beg to differ. The only thing you can control is your entry! The market controls all else. It determines, by it’s dynamics, if your SL and or PT was or is appropriate. Therefore, I will adjust my SL and or PT based upon the dynamics as the trade unfolds. I CANNOT adjust my entry as it is already made and has become a reality in my original structure once I take it. I am “in” the market so to speak. That fact, I cannot change. It has happened. I can only do two things as concerns that fact. Exit or add to it. If I do the latter it needs to have a mathematical basis within the immediate and larger context AND within the present dynamics taking place. However, in the example below I discuss straight short and long scalps with no averaging down or scaling in as some prefer to call it LOL.

Allow me to give an example:

Price is in a range (defined as 20 or more bars of sideways PA). The larger Context is a gap down open from a previous bear channel. In other words, weakness is in the distant past (from a 5 min ...15..min perspective). The fact that we are now in a sideways range indicates the bulls are trying to reverse that weakness and they want a reversal up. But the fact we are staying in the range indicates the bears want the range to just become a bear flag. The bears want a downside BO. Remember, in a larger context a bear channel i.e. a downtrend, a 20 bar TR on a 5 min chart is like a 7 bar bear flag on a 15 min chart and a 3 bar bear flag on a 30 min chart. So, the tug of war between the bulls and bears continue until we get a successful (read my journal for def of a successful BO) and one side wins (for a while). Now, in that struggle the TR by it’s nature reveals that both are about even (thus creating the range or there would be no range created...let than one sink in as it applies to ALL price patterns even though some would say price patterns are hogwash LOL). One tactic or technique I use in such an environment is fading the outer limits of the range (both bottom and top). There is a 70% to 80% chance any BO attempt, bottom or top, will fail within 5 bars and price will trade back into the channel or further down or up into it, even if it never actually broke the upper or lower limits on the attempt. In the larger context those odds favor fading the BO attempt out of the top. Why? Previous weakness to the left before the range began. So 80% from top maybe 70% from bottom.

Ok, so BO attempts and their failure or success are now based upon mathematical logic. Now what about the entry..SL..PT in the initial structure of the trade. I got the math on my side in BO attempt failures. But where does a mathematical basis come into play in my initial trade structure?

Ok, my initial entry, if I am conservative, will be to short when price is in the top 1/4 of the range. If not so conservative, I may start shorting in the top 1/3 of the TR. Initial SL will be say 2 to 4 points above the top of the range or above my entry if using a set SL (maybe a little more in volatile market conditions) OR an alternative initial SL looking to the left and finding the closest or lowest (in terms of SL distance) swing high before the range began and placing the initial SL just above that swing high thus using an initial PA SL, as opposed to a dollar or set point SL. For the initial PT I use the traders equation that brooks teaches:

The probability of success X the initial reward needs to be greater than the probability of failure X the initial risk.

To come to the probability part of the equation I have to make a judgement call. To help me make that I ask: What just happened in price action? What are the chances of price hitting X target BEFORE it will hit X SL? Then I mentally adjust the target to give me a higher probability of success. If the probability of success is high say 60% to 75% then the left over percentage becomes the probability of failure figure. Once I assign the probability number I can plug in the numbers into the equation and structure my SL and PT to give me a positive traders equation. Mind you I don’t do this manually so much as mentally. Then I place my trade.

So, now that I am in the trade I have to manage the trade according to the unfolding dynamics of PA AFTER my entry. I have to monitor actual risk and actual PT. I want at least a 1 point scalp and prefer 2:1 reward to risk but will sometimes settle for 1:1. Often, when price moves immediately in my favor after my entry I can get a 3:1 or 6:1 reward to risk based upon my actual risk I suffered after my entry. If I can get that kind of reward I will grab it quickly even BEFORE my initial PT is reached because depending on the type of setup I entered on, I know that paper profit can disappear quickly. That is why traders get whipsawed. Price moves immediately in their favor..they get greedy thinking more is coming they will hold and bam suddenly price reverses and as quick as they saw a gain, they now see a good paper profit with a GOOD R:R, evaporate and they are now in a losing trade. See, they had a mathematical advantage but they did not take advantage of it in the dynamics of the unfolding trades. On most setups (there are some exceptions like in strong BO’s) if the market gives me a 3:1, 6:1, 8:1 ..etc reward to actual risk I would mathematically be foolish to not take it. I CANNOT go wrong taking it as that is an edge i.e. a mathematical advantage and math is relentless. Greed as well as fear can obliterate our “edge” as price dynamically unfolds. That is why, if you have looked at my chart in my journal you see me jumping in and out. The dynamics of the trade just gave ME a dynamic edge and I am taking it! It ain’t magic as ON aka Fedex likes to announce LOL.

Things are a bit different when averaging down although much of the process is very similar.

I will, perhaps at a later date post more on structuring a trade when utilizing averaging down.

I am posting this writeup I wrote in this thread because it is a thread about educators that tend to only discuss entries and rarely discuss managing a trade. I will also post it in my journal.

Happy trading

Volpri
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Hi Volpri,

I've been consistently profitable entirely from using a mechanical trading approach, and I could never in a million years trade the way that you do, but I enjoyed reading this fascinating and wonderfully detailed description of your thoughts about entering and managing trades using a discretionary approach.

And btw, appreciate the attention to detail and labeled charts in your journal. A pleasure to read.

May your wife always be able to shop at Dillards (once they have re-opened, and using appropriate PPE and anti-social distancing, of course)

volpri · May 24, 2020

Slope Trader said:
Hi Volpri,

I've been consistently profitable entirely from using a mechanical trading approach, and I could never in a million years trade the way that you do, but I enjoyed reading this fascinating and wonderfully detailed description of your thoughts about entering and managing trades using a discretionary approach.

And btw, appreciate the attention to detail and labeled charts in your journal. A pleasure to read.

May your wife always be able to shop at Dillards (once they have re-opened, and using appropriate PPE and anti-social distancing, of course)
More...

Thanks. I am glad you are successful. I hope your mechanical system keeps working for you! My wife definitely prefers Dillards!

HenryAvery · May 24, 2020

Because the believe in market timing. Their students love hearing fairytales.

tradingismybusiness · May 24, 2020

volpri said:
I didn’t scramble I had company. I came back. Now don’t you scramble because I am holding your feet to the fire. Lol. Take a few days to play around with your concepts on a platform even a sim and post the charts showing us how it works in trading, not theory. Then spell it out for me to test it side by side myself. I don’t have a high IQ and obviously need clear step by step on how to test it out ..your way beside my way...step by step. Do it first yourself ..practice it..and post the chart with the trades then tell me exactly how to test them side by side. I will certainly test them.

Just don’t tell me to tape some stupid note by my monitor saying “only losers average down”. No disrespect to Mr Tudor. Maybe for him that is true. Not true for me and I have posted my charts with trades in my journal showing clearly how averaging down works for me.

I have yet to see a single chart with platform posted trades on it by you. While I am open to your idea just “show” us trading, even if on a sim.
Thanks
More...

im not in the business of helping others trade profitably against me. im not the guy who wants or needs to stroke his ego showing what i do in the markets on a chart. i get off on taking money out of the market. its about all i like but i dont want people thinking buying and averaging down is the holy grail because you can lose your ass thats all

VEGASDESERT · May 24, 2020

volpri · May 24, 2020

tradingismybusiness said:
im not in the business of helping others trade profitably against me. im not the guy who wants or needs to stroke his ego showing what i do in the markets on a chart. i get off on taking money out of the market. its about all i like but i dont want people thinking buying and averaging down is the holy grail because you can lose your ass thats all
More...

What I figured. I am all eyes and ears. Willing to learn some more magic...if for no other reason than pestering my friend Fedex. lol. You are all talk and no show. Yada yada yada. In the business of helping others trade against you? What 5 tiny contracts in Mes Or ES. Gonna hurt your trading? That is nothing! What a pitiful excuse! ROFLMAO. It appears you are a troll and that you may not be able to trade. But it was fun jawing with you. You can’t prove your concepts out in the real world now can you?

And tradingisyourbusiness! HILARIOUS. ET needs a hall of shame and put you in there as a permanent fixture until you repent.

NOW........

IF YOU CAN!

ROFLMAO...ROFLMAO...ROFLMAO

SimpleMeLike · May 24, 2020

tradingismybusiness said:
im not in the business of helping others trade profitably against me. im not the guy who wants or needs to stroke his ego showing what i do in the markets on a chart. i get off on taking money out of the market. its about all i like but i dont want people thinking buying and averaging down is the holy grail because you can lose your ass thats all
More...

tradingismybusiness,

Please go sit your ass down man and be quiet. Just sit down man and take the day off. You sound really silly.

tradingismybusiness · May 24, 2020

SimpleMeLike said:
tradingismybusiness,

Please go sit your ass down man and be quiet. Just sit down man and take the day off. You sound really silly.
More...

hey dickbag. i looked at some of your posts what ru a fucking high schooler