%% Exactly; in one sense they were geniuses, as measured by %% gain + aum. But as far as knowing when to cut a loss or ''insane leverage''; having a PHD, as one PHD laughed ''= sometimes phenominal dud'' LOL
If your question is sarcasm then I apologize. Yes, there are extremely interesting math and logic problems to solve when it comes to trading. Lots of people are working on these challenges. No, I will not tell you what they are. The joy and profit must be earned. No one is going to give it away.
Please, PLEASE keep believing that. lol. How do you think RenTech makes their billions each year? I'll admit many are hired for window dressing but there are definitely genuine gains being made. But we need guys like you make emotionally driven decisions in your "unpredictable" market. You are a very important asset. Thank you.
No doubt with rentech that the quant models have driven their high magnitude growth. But I've seen too many other quant firms throwing a lot of brain power and resources in order to achieve sub 10% Caror net of fees
I think this 220 IQ guy fears that he may produce weak results for hedge funds. And have his fame somewhat shaken and aura of his skills or brain undermined. Why? He knows shit about trading , psychology and economics. Markets are very often irrational. Manipulated. Dynamics are changing constantly. Math on the other end of spectrum has fixed rules.
That's a hypothesis. Did you do the math? RenTech and Buffet are not expected outliers or demonstrations of survival bias. This is a claim people make over and over without putting numbers to the idea. Here's the no-math explanation: RenTech WILL make money this year and again next year. Survival bias doesn't allow you to predict the future like that so it must be something else.
The book about their shenanigans was called When Genius Failed by that WSJ reporter. I remember I saw an interview with Myron Scholes on the NOVA special about the collapse of LTCM. He had no conscience, he was a real psychopath.