The more you post the more you show what little you really know about trading. To think that backtesting-looking at past data in order to try and predict future data-is nothing short of stupidity. It reminds me of another silly thing-the Da Vinci Code-and-in case you are not aware it has been proven that you will get similar messages from Alice in Wonderland. It is all rubbish-soothsayer stuff-the farthest thing from reality you can get. If you want to be a fool-then that is entirely your own choice-but please do not try and persuade others to be foolish as well-just because that is what you have chosen to be in life. The markets are controlled by those who have money-learn to see when these entities are at work and it then becomes easy-everything else is just delusion-but as always-most will continue to ignore the facts-much like the man in the street who handed out free money to the few who actually done something-and approached him. Dream on Boy-you are one the majority-that is for sure. The General
Eight- I can suggest to you-with near certainty-that you are wasting your time with automated strategies-well-at least if you are an average trader-if you work for a big hedge fund-or the like-then that is a different story-but for the average man who wants to become successful at trading-it is nothing more than a total waste of time and effort. If you are to trade fulltime-then learn how to spot what is happening today-not what might happen-as might is for those who are not living in the here and now. I am amazed when I hear all about protecting "secrets"-when the reality is such that there are no "secrets" to protect-so it is a futile effort. It is nothing more than misinformation-so do not think that that you are alone-there are many many like you out there-but it is very easy to prove why it is rubbish-and I think you know what that is? The General
Uhhh, yeah. The guy that ran the patent office sometime in the early twentieth century said that everything that could be invented already was too... Later
Thanks "eight" I was looking for a patsy to illustrate my point and it is your lucky day to be it. If you find the courage to trade with real money you will realize the big mistake that you noobies make around here. sosueme
Keep spewing your ignorance because you lose more credibility with every post you make. What you spit up is not the purpose of backtesting but call William Eckhardt and set him straight on your "reality" anyway, you ignoramus. "I know of no way to validate conjectures concerning technical trading without back testing" -- William Eckhardt You dodged my question before... do you even know who he is? As of the end of last month, Eckhardt Trading Company's Standard Fund has returned 15,345.06% since 1991. What's your real-time track record? Jack Hershey who you defend returned -24% in a trading contest. P.S. you should change your nic to "ignoramus" because not only is it more fitting, you've been owned and are too stupid to see it. Calling yourself "the general" is the height of absurdity. But then again, it also explains why you think Jack Hershey's "methods" are valid
So Eckhardt is handicapped. No one else has to be, however. The several alternatives include: 1. Forward testing.... 2. Designing and using a paradigm that eliminates probability. 3. Using leading indicators of what is traded.... 4. Automating systems based upon the scientific use of the null hypothesis. 5. Making use of all of the above in the trading application. Back testing has a couple of draw backs: 1. It doesn't work 2. It doesn't prove anything. 3. It has nothing to do with real time in the Present, the only place trading takes place. 4. IT is an inductive proof just like anyone quoting a past track record of someone for some "due diligence" type purpose.
I hope you're not trying to mislead people into thinking backtesting has no value just because your "methods" don't do well when backtested, even when you validate the logic and details. Like here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2438060#post2438060 For you to speak of Eckhardt as if you know better than he does is absurd, even for you. Eckhardt Trading Company's Standard Fund has returned 15,345.06% since 1991. What's your documented track record other than -24% in a trading contest? Why don't you call Eckhardt and tell him he's got it all wrong? One can backtest an idea on thousands of tradables under multiple market conditions in minutes. Forward testing is slow, tedious, inefficient and extremely limited and there's no guarantee that the market segment you forward tested your idea on will be any more representative of future market conditions than the multiple segments I backtested it on. Of course your "paradigm" is much more conducive to you playing pied piper and stringing your followers along, so I can see why you advocate it.
My position on trading is that about anyone is capable of trading. There is no dark side. Making 16,000 percent in 18 years is an example of an organizations performance. It is between 10 and 11 doublings of capital in 18 years, roughly. That is what it looks like to me. 18 years is 1/3 of the time I have spent trading and I'm sure you have traded longer than Eckhardt as well. Obviously , people who trade do not operate at Exkhardt's level since they are usually more effective in taking the market's offer. He refrains from dealing with the offer, largely, and spends his time in corporate and sales and client concerns. Making money by trading is a different matter. The percent per day a person has to make to have 16,000 precent over 18 years is easily calculated by using a calculator or something like the rule of 72 which is a simple doubling rule. Scott's cash cow will have 4 levels, none of which operate in the range of Eckhardt's results. The first pass on the cash cow was getting acquainted. I guess I passed that black and white test. I liked the way the test was presented and so did a lot of others. It was recognizable as a way to not have to be employed but to trade using an automatic system (ATS). We went through some renditions and you lost track of what was going on. Multicharts displays the dashboard and its lights for six panels: Volume, MACD, Stoch 14 and Stoch 5 and the outputs of the aforementioned in a trading format to make up the fifth panel. The sixth panel is the record of the signals sent to the execution plat form. The ATS receives price and volume and converts volume to MACD, Stoch 14, Stoch 5. On the Cash Cow basic this was 83 rows on excel, whose division is related to either creating the indicator panels (lights) or the export signals to the trading platform. We think of the display as M, the excel as A (for analysis) and the ATS as the D and A, all of MADA the routine of the pool extraction paradigm. Price is not use as a variable in the ATS since the ATS is indicator based. The display does have price on it as a panel where, as time passes the turns are indicated. The plan is to use an adjunct to the ATS to add contracts from profits. Trading the Cash Cow at under 10 to 11 doublings of contracts from profits is going to be done by those who wish since it is within the capacity of the ES. Adding contracts will happen using version 1.2 successor (above mentioned) version 1.3. Modifying the excel for the shell outside of the Basic Cash Cow requires that the inputs to the logic of the ATS be increased from the 15 of version 1.3 to about 248. This means the panels of the logic each will have their relative logic increased as well. This is still beginner but it is the final aspect of beginner and just trades the channels. Basic Supreme was what is was named as we told you. Doubling as Eckhardt has done 10 times, is defined as how profits are applied to capital to compound. For any potential trader, applying profits is THE key to growth of wealth. therefore, there is no skill required in trading. what is required is to simply apply profits to the capital you have. Improving an ATS just makes it effective, efficient and optimal for taking the market's offer. Charting the daily ATR is a good way to judge the performance of an operation. Obviously Eckhardt's curve is a flat line compared to compounding the daily ATR at the margin allowable. So Scott suggested the cash cow game plan in March and you turned some lines you like into red and made the print larger. We have been adding lights, excel lines and logic instead. On 06MAY09 you saw a contract make 17.25 points per contract for the day at a beginner level. Congratulations for being on the sidelines watching. Anyone who trades ES contracts knows how to add contracts with profits. Anyone can make a chart of added contracts per profit just by making a set of columns for various levels of margin. I suggest margins of 500 to 5,000 with nice stages in between. You can also use ATR and efficiency in the chart to soup it up a little and see where the Cash Cow and Eckhardt both fit on the chart. We stated many years ago that a person could stay at behinner (forest level and make a decent living). One aspect of this is adding contracts and trading 50 or so as the daily routine. The guarantee we speak of is foreign to you. It is very difficult for mostly anyone to deal scientifically and logically with a problem. Money and making it is especially difficult as we saw in Eckhardt's thinking and your belief in what he thought up to say. It is difficult to lay aside what people learn at home, in school or on the job when it comes to money. Most people do not have money and it is largely unknown to them. They just hear about it. The standard for making money is the market's offr, plain and simple. Therefore, I am obliged to use the offer as the basis for building a money making machine. I am obliged to build a Cash Cow. It works this way: 1. It stays on the right side of the market, 2. I am in the market all the time, 3. It uses price change as the way to make money (neutral bias). Profit segments come from 1. 2 and 3 are required to pragmatically extract the market's offer. we can only use binary vector analysis to do this because 1, 2, and 3 DICTATE USING BINARY VECTORS. yOU DIDN'T GET THAT AT HOME, IN SCHOOL OR ON THE JOB. TOO BAD. All data must be binary vectors. All data processing must be in the form of binary vector logic. Read ET and find out that very few people do this and they get the consequence of only making a small amount of the market's offer. (See Eckhardt, for example) So your mind is on doing cartoons and pin wheels. That is from your home, your school and your job. some where along the way you got taught to be passive and to just do as you were told. It turns out that you can no longer figure anything out. So what. that is the way it goes. We, instead, are making an ATS based on indicators that will operate on four levels. the Basic level is way beyond you or Eckhardt. We do not care about you and Eckhardt's lousy situation. At a Basic level we can add daily more contracts than we have. Get a bag of marbles and take one out of the bag. Put the markble in your other hand. Reach into the bag each day an take out more marbles than you have in your other hand. If your hand gets too small, then make a pile and use the pile as a reference. As an aid to you this is how the marbles will pile up: 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048. That is what Eckhardt did in 18 years. the Cash Cow works the same way with 500 dollar margin in the number of days it took you to put your marbles in a pile. Only 10 points a day per contract is required. Look at the daily ATR and see if it is 10 or more. I know this is meaningless to you. you don't have any marbles any more. You have lost your marbles already.
I think we need a reality check 1. Methodology a. Jack Hershey: SCT and PVT b. Bill Eckhardt: technical trading systems 2. Methodology Disclosure a. Jack Hershey: 6950 posts on ET as of May 28, 2009 (Jack Hershey, Grob109, Bubba7) b. Bill Eckhardt: No posts on ET; systems are closely guarded proprietary secret 3. Backtesting Philosophy a. Jack Hershey: "backtesting is not a viable means for finding anything out" b. Bill Eckhardt: "I know of no way to validate conjectures concerning technical trading without back testing" 4. Claims a. Jack Hershey: "for PVT it turns out that instruments like equities yield 2 1/2 % daily on the coarse level and run up to 15% or so on the highest levels," "it takes low 5 digits to get to 15,000,000 in a year by trading every day," "I do reach my goal of 3x H-L in ES as a practice," etc. b. Bill Eckhardt: "profitable trading will only get harder" 5. Reality (Track Record) a. Jack Hershey: -24% in trading contest (2002) b. Bill Eckhardt: Successful hedge fund manager; Eckhardt Trading Company Standard Fund has returned 15,345.06% since 1991 6. Mentorship a. Jack Hershey: 10+ year history of playing pied piper on the internet; notable proteges include nwbprop and neoxx b. Bill Eckhardt: Co-founded Turtles with Richard Dennis 7. How They Respond to Requests for Track Record a. Jack Hershey: misdirection and obfuscation b. Bill Eckhardt: Audited 20+ year real money track record 8. Profiled In a. Jack Hershey: ??? b. Bill Eckhardt: Market Wizards, numerous newspapers and magazines, etc.