Obviously 666 didn't come up with a good example. He may be a person who is a conversationalist about what he has read or gleened from others but reasoning and understanding is not his bag as yet. Making over a tenth of 1 percent a day on average was never anything to cheer about. However, it may be possible that dealing in multiples of the ATR is what a potential trader observes as he builds his display. All viewers see it. Apparently not many viewers do more than 666 did when he reviewed Eckhardt to provide the humor for us. There were four possibilities for Eckhardt to consider in the studues and he left out two of them. Too bad, it negated the study from the beginning. Today researchers automatically go to one of the left out cases as THE comprehensive case to examine, Conjecture about a technical aspect of a market is simply conjecture before or after testing the conjecture. Design of models and their development doesn't deal with conjecture since it is a diversion. In science and in logic, work is done with hypothesis BEFORE they are used in trading with money. This is where trading FOUNDATIONS for the many profitable methods come from. Most people who do modelling and model development KNOW where they are in several spectrums that qualify models and qualify development of models. A good and kindred example is APL work. Now there are two main forks. What are the prudent alternatives to conjecture? The list grows longer as long as one thinks about it. It becomes fairly clear that those who work the "edge" turf, do not succeed usually. Most edges turn out, as expected, to be marginal. It is a tough mental decision to throw out the market's behavior and instead "look" for an edge. Poker is a simple game. No one looks for deges in poker. A potential player just learns the game at young some age probably around the time he learns reading and arithmatic and doing division and fractions and ratios. Minds are easily differentiated before teenage. after teenage the mind turns to "use it or lose it". By understanding that anyone can be successful in trading simply because there is no competition and the market is always offering, is a very good place to start. I started there and understood the right side of the market, taking profits for whole trend moves and keeping my capital pulling money out of the market all the time. Scoring was a byproduct that 666 could not grasp, use or back test as we all found out. It was very funny when it appeared and has become a priceless posting each cycle of its reappearance. Scoring divides the cycle of price, volume and Accumulation/ Distribution into 8 segments or portions. They follow an order that resembles counting since they are named by their binary value. Three binary things have 8 combinations. To make money you use the vector aspct of scores. One score leads to another. This phenomena is also used with indicators. The segemnts follow an order as well and their are many combinations of segments since their are more than 8 different segments. I use 31 basic identifyable elements and in combination they provide 10 configurations that provide the same three baisc answers as scoring does. Where in the cycle are you?, What is next? and How fast are things changing? 666 was able, for the S&P 500, to test 1000 stocks and find the shift from the score 0 to the score 7 23,000 times. But he could not find the corresponding shift from 4 to 3 23,000 times. He concluded that it didn't happen. Actually, for him and for the stocks he tested it did not happen. For those who wish to know why, the answer is that he did not use the correct time period bcause he did not consider the third question which was part of my invention that he was proving doesn't work. In science and logic, we all know this is a challenge that is not considred for scientific and logical reasons. 666 did not consider the logic nor the science of scoring it turns out. He may have the same orientation to indicators. For me, I use these valuable things trading and in ATS's and fortunately they work as hypothesized, simply based on the fact that they exist and happen in markets. I am compared to Eckhardt for reasons or various sorts. In fact, I am an amateur and have been for over 50 years. Darvas and I were contemporaries. We both made the news then. I negatively and he positively. I was faulted for trading a stock that triggered a rumor mill that led to brokers being fined. We both, however, made a lot of money in those times and ever since. It seemed that no one wanted to make money then and when a person did it was an unusual occurence. As slurpie has determined for himself, he is not going to consider what has worked for others for over 50 years. DR Z cannot even read anything he apparently has heard about. In fact, there are many people who have convinced themselves that lindicators are lagging something. For me, as is scoring, they are leading the price that I trade. Anyone can learn to trade and make a goodly portion of the market's offer. The potential trader is subject to certain rules of behavior and thinking. If a potential trader does not think straight or according to logic or science, he fails. If a trader acts upon thinking that is imperfect, then he will be a loser most likely. One of the great things about trading is that the mind can be built to make tons of money compared to most any other endeavor. And there is no price of admission it would seem. I never paid one, anyway. I made money from the very beginning. People with money and those who are very successful traders, see in others a lot of things that aren't the best. Slurpie is typical of a person who draws conclusions that are right to him and, in fact, it is terrific that he has gone away from doing what I and others so successfully. He is not going to bug us about anything he needs. the same with 666 he isn't learning or finding anything out. He is in lala land doing paperdolls and didn't understand Eckhardt didn't make any money over 18 years. People who do consider trading rationally see what the ATR means and they see what compounding means in terms of how long it takes to double using regular market constraints. Trading is the modern miracle of modern times. All that is needed is a mind, information, a computer and little money. I began with 300 dollars and some yellow pads to write down information. I made a velluum chart 11 by 17 for 6 months charting. I printed blank brownlines and pencilled the H, L and C of stocks. I saved the back page of the WSJ on wing nut clamped racks for quick back plotting. I added half my salary every other week. Charts gave me rules and rules gave me market behavior. Scoring showed the three variable relationship of price, volume and Accumulation/Distribution. This suggested the P, V relationship that was in a book. So I vacationed in Europe and bought Mercedes and quit working and raced sailboats out of Greenwich and moved to Switzerland to ski and climb and travel. Then I moved to Bucks County and raised two kids on a 1759 small farmette. Now I am in AZ, doing what we want and focussed on our NFP four missions. We spent 5 years here (ET) documenting trading @ 1 to 2 million hits a year. ET turns out to be the funniest place on earth almost. I admit I didn't learn how to work for a living; why would I? I recommend the trader's life since it is so simple and money is always available for the taking. I simply cannot imagine a person averaging 0.13% a day for 18 years given the daily ATR's out there. Steenbarger traning Greenspoon is equally funny to me. Greenspoon runs 400 contracts and trades 60 turns to average less than a tick per contract per turn under Steenbarger's continuing mental care. This may be the definition of incoherence.
T666 here is your cue!!!! Your lifes work is calling upon you yet again! This is another defining moment for you to demonstrate your exquisite bashing skills. Feel free to extract links and any type of controversial images from your database. The fate of everyone's trading lies in your hand. We appreciate your selfless acts as we do understand that you will accomplish NOTHING in life for the benefit of us!!
Jack, I hate to break it to you but the S&P 500 doesn't have 1000 stocks, it has 500. Also, YOU'RE the one who returned -24% in the trading contest, not Eckhardt. His Standard Fund has returned 15,345.06% since 1991. That's greater than zero. The rest of your demented drivel makes about as much sense. BTW.. please tell us why you didn't turn $10 thousand into $1 Million in 100 days and post updates on ET as you promised your former IBD group you would.
Jack, if you mean this I posted it as a reality check... you're talking as if you know better so I thought I'd post some facts so people can decide for themselves. 1. Methodology a. Jack Hershey: SCT and PVT b. Bill Eckhardt: technical trading systems 2. Methodology Disclosure a. Jack Hershey: 6950 posts on ET as of May 28, 2009 (Jack Hershey, Grob109, Bubba7) b. Bill Eckhardt: No posts on ET; systems are closely guarded proprietary secret 3. Backtesting Philosophy a. Jack Hershey: "backtesting is not a viable means for finding anything out" b. Bill Eckhardt: "I know of no way to validate conjectures concerning technical trading without back testing" 4. Claims a. Jack Hershey: "for PVT it turns out that instruments like equities yield 2 1/2 % daily on the coarse level and run up to 15% or so on the highest levels," "it takes low 5 digits to get to 15,000,000 in a year by trading every day," "I do reach my goal of 3x H-L in ES as a practice," etc. b. Bill Eckhardt: "profitable trading will only get harder" 5. Reality (Track Record) a. Jack Hershey: -24% in trading contest (2002) b. Bill Eckhardt: Successful hedge fund manager; Eckhardt Trading Company Standard Fund has returned 15,345.06% since 1991 6. Mentorship a. Jack Hershey: 10+ year history of playing pied piper on the internet; notable proteges include nwbprop and neoxx b. Bill Eckhardt: Co-founded Turtles with Richard Dennis 7. How They Respond to Requests for Track Record a. Jack Hershey: misdirection and obfuscation b. Bill Eckhardt: Audited 20+ year real money track record 8. Profiled In a. Jack Hershey: ??? b. Bill Eckhardt: Market Wizards, numerous newspapers and magazines, etc.
Yeah... I always wondered why you titled that curve with the number 1000 and the word" stocks". I must have posted that humor 50 times so far. Congrats, you finally got the humor in your title. By the bye. Mostly everyone sees that anyone can use the beginner level of anything to go do an order of magnitude shift in under 100 days. Did you think Eckhardt was making any money those 18 years??? Some of your posts read like you think he is making a lot of money or that he is a person to use as a standard. Making a point or two a day and not compounding it beats Eckhardt and his turtles. Here in ET, people are doing quite well unknown to you apparently. Comparing the pool extraction and its applications to Eckhardt is really humorous. Collect the posts that tell the story...... if you can.
Jack, Maybe i should apologise for my rude and ignorant behaviour towards yourself. To be honest, i agree with you on several issues, that you have so kindly mentioned above. This is what i don't get. The whole tenet of what i personally see as tradable in your above post, does not fit in with what your students post, in the form of thier charting. I can only conclude that they just don't get you! That's not suprising. Not because of you, but because they, your students, don't realise that the fruits of trading is not a story to be told. I guess you are partly to blame, but seeing as though it's you. Dackster.
This is easily settled with the backtest from scottd's script transposed into WL on SPX data. These were the results I posted on 12/24/2008 or thereabouts as it relates to where I was with Jack's script taken directly from Scottd's. APD was approximately 1.14 from 9/1/2008 to 12/24/2008. Long + Short Buy & Hold Starting Capital $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 Ending Capital $2,159,661.95 $664,938.75 Net Profit $1,159,661.95 ($335,061.25) Net Profit % 115.97% -33.51% Annualized Gain % 1104.65% -73.26% Exposure 12.33% 100.00% Cash Interest $0.00 $0.00 Margin Loan Interest $0.00 $0.00 Total Commission ($336.00) ($8.00) DividendsPaid $0.00 $0.00 Number of Trades 21 1 Avg Profit/Loss $55,222.00 ($335,061.25) Avg Profit/Loss % 3.99% -33.50% Avg Bars Held 16 2,281.00 Winning Trades 20 0 Winning % 95.24% 0.00% Gross Profit $1,219,121.07 $0.00 Avg Profit $60,956.05 $0.00 Avg Profit % 4.49% 0.00% Avg Bars Held 14.85 0 Max Consecutive 18 0 Losing Trades 1 1 Losing % 4.76% 100.00% Gross Loss ($59,459.12) ($335,061.25) Avg Loss ($59,459.12) ($335,061.25) Avg Loss % -6.02% -33.50% Avg Bars Held 39 2,281.00 Max Consecutive 1 1 Max Drawdown ($198,766.13) ($426,479.69) Max Drawdown Date 11/13/2008 11/21/2008 Max Drawdown % -13.62% -42.65% Max Drawdown % Date 10/10/2008 11/21/2008 Wealth-Lab Score 7,741.01 -104.5097 RAR 8,961.45 -73.2641 Profit Factor 20.5035 0 Recovery Factor 5.8343 0.7856 Payoff Ratio 0.7464 0 Sharpe Ratio 12.9314 -23.3701 Ulcer Index 2.5879 26.3136 WL Error Term 3.377 4.435 WL Reward Ratio 327.1093 -16.5195 Luck Coefficient 3.9143 0 Pessimistic Rate of Return 5.795 0 Equity Drop Ratio 0.0022 -0.0678 After 12/24/2008, starting 12/25/2008, the script has made no progress, with an APR going to 3.84%. Long + Short Buy & Hold Starting Capital $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00 Ending Capital $1,015,980.20 $1,054,037.40 Net Profit $15,980.20 $54,037.40 Net Profit % 1.60% 5.40% Annualized Gain % 3.84% 13.28% Exposure 18.20% 100.00% Cash Interest $0.00 $0.00 Margin Loan Interest $0.00 $0.00 Total Commission ($448.00) ($8.00) DividendsPaid $0.00 $0.00 Number of Trades 28 1 Avg Profit/Loss $570.72 $54,037.40 Avg Profit/Loss % 0.10% 5.41% Avg Bars Held 19.96 2,972.00 Winning Trades 19 1 Winning % 67.86% 100.00% Gross Profit $295,367.19 $54,037.40 Avg Profit $15,545.64 $54,037.40 Avg Profit % 1.56% 5.41% Avg Bars Held 15.26 2,972.00 Max Consecutive 5 1 Losing Trades 9 0 Losing % 32.14% 0.00% Gross Loss ($279,386.99) $0.00 Avg Loss ($31,043.00) $0.00 Avg Loss % -2.98% 0.00% Avg Bars Held 29.89 0 Max Consecutive 2 0 Max Drawdown ($167,476.75) ($314,760.38) Max Drawdown Date 3/4/2009 3/6/2009 Max Drawdown % -14.61% -29.13% Max Drawdown % Date 3/4/2009 3/6/2009 Wealth-Lab Score 18.0031 9.4153 RAR 21.0834 13.285 Profit Factor 1.0572 INF Recovery Factor 0.0954 0.1717 Payoff Ratio 0.5215 INF Sharpe Ratio 0.7434 -0.1548 Ulcer Index 7.4861 12.95 WL Error Term 1.862 4.097 WL Reward Ratio 2.0604 3.2426 Luck Coefficient 2.3017 0 Pessimistic Rate of Return 0.6363 0 Equity Drop Ratio 0.8591 0.5276 This is not an endorsement of his methods, nor should it be seen as such. I wouldn't trade this script. It's an intraday script on 15 minute bars that would require a special kind of market to make it work. Jack's crazy, no doubt, but Spydertrader never actually posted a working version. If you want the version that works, you can go back and look at my past threads. Jack is absolutely wrong about selling on the close, and the volume condition is unique to fidelity WLP users, as .SPX data has its own volume data from which the optimal values were taken. Using this script on ES does not work. What's this script then? It's ScottD's TS script transposed into WL code optimized on .SPX data native only to Fidelity, which is why only WL users would be able to verify his claims. We'll have to wait and see if his script goes higher. After I wrote the script I only recently started examining the results 4 months later, and I'm not impressed, and I don't think anyone would be.
We are not coding on TS. If you think so , too bad. As much fun as it is, and Trader666 did about the same for his stunning work, switching to a non futures index (a Basket) and switching the fractal to a slow one, may cause excess profits to accrue. Also minor point. The coding on indicators is different in a couple of ways from using the SCT based on P and V. In the cash cow we do not use price but substitute indicators. My bet is that you did not use indicators either to make all those great profits. Have fun everyone.