True that. Statement would be right if the S&P is up just 1 point in 5 years, which will still mean that the investor lost opportunity versus bonds/real estates/CDs, etc.
The S&P 500 fell below the line but has been higher again and continues to close the month above the line. The resistance line continues to hold as support, for the time being at least, the support line continues to hold. On April 21, I wrote and I quote âif the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down.â It peaked on May 22 at 1687,18, so I think that the S&P 500 will go up and the support line will hold. I donât expect wild swings in volatility over the next 2 years but let´s see what is going to happen.
I agree with the idea of there being wild swings in volatility. I know this statement is virtually always true (that volatility will change a lot during 5 years) but I think itâs something to watch out for. It seems like there are many factors now that can send the DOW soaring higher or falling like a brick. Investors are both nervous and optimistic now.
The period from Mar 2009 to the present cannot be anything other than a dead cat bounce. It is identical in shape and structure to 2003-2007. For those of you who think Mar 2009 was the start of a new long term bull market, look at how the 1982-2000 period began. It didn't start with a bounce.
You are delusional, presenting some of the worst technical analysis I've ever seen from any source. You can't base ANY overall market move of 4-20 years duration on past years. Its based on new fundamentals every time, with 2008 being the market reaction to one of the worst negative events in our lifetime. If there is to be a major dip now, it has to have a REAL catalyst. Not some imagined pattern you've seen in charts. You remind me of Grand_Super_Cycle and his "Wile E. Coyote" ramblings.
for the time being, we might have technical corrections 3-5% here and there, but signals are showing we're in the normal phase; no red flags are showing we're about to have 40-50% correction yet aka bear market (you know the reason because of the FED; right now, big money are in synch with the FED, no disagreement yet. This would take sometime to develop!
Would you care to tell me what events caused the 1929, 1974, 1987 and 2000-02 meltdowns? The fact is, bull and bear market cycles have been pretty much the same for the last several hundred years of market history. News, technology and presidents change.. but human psychology never does. Every downturn has been caused by the same thing - the greater fool fails to show up. That's all. I would attribute your optimism to the fact that the market has done exceptionally well over the last 4.25 years. And that's the key word here: exceptional. Market returns are, as we know, mean reverting.
If global interest rates rise (should I say "when" and not "if"?) then S&P along with many indices may take a large tumble. This scary-looking, and very possible, future is keeping me intra-day trading with the pipdaq setups rather than taking long positions. I am happy keeping it that way - as long as my results remain consistent anyway!