Why the S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?

it s already very tough to know where it will be NEXT month.. so 5 years time.... looks like a long shot at forecasting anything at all.......................

 

could perfectly be a triple top...

 

anyway, thanks for sharing your idea, i don t know if it s possible to "recommend" somebody else'spost here on Elite Trader, otherwise I would.

I would like to repeat a thought that has already been mentionned on your thread : if S&P goes higher, it will be in NOMINAL terms, not real, because of likely inflation and $ devaluation. (think of the recent case in Argentina...)

And another thought of my own :
investing for a 5 year timespan using a 3x leveraged ETF is SUICIDAL because of the money you will loose because of the Theta effect.....
Try buying a CFD instead, 10k notional..

 

The long term market timer portfolios went down its first month since the start.
Following 7 consecutive months of rises, the S&P 500 fell in June.


Note:
On 10 Jun 10 there was a 2 –for- 1 Stock Split for the ProShares UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO).


The following are the long-term market timer portfolios:

 

To OP,

I like the original chart you posted.

Just that the arrows are off by 1 swing.

You ignored the first dip in 1970s. For pattern matching purpose you cannot do it selectively.

The big drop is the one hasn't happen yet. =)

 

I'm sorry, I don't agree on that.
I wrote about this matter on 15 September 2012.

To use or not to use Leveraged ETFs?

There are some people suggest that we should not use leveraged ETFs, arguing that “volatility destroys Leveraged ETFs” or “Leveraged ETFs lose from compounding”, but I think that we must not do as some suggest because Leveraged ETFs are not as dangerous as they say.

Let's take an example, suppose we bought SSO (2x Leveraged S&P 500 ETF) and UPRO (3x Leveraged S&P500 ETF) at 7/1/10 and held it through today 9/15/12. The underlying S&P 500 Index gained 42,67% over this period, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) gained 49, 56% (more than 42,67%), SSO gained 99,91% (more than 2x42,67%= 85,34%) and UPRO gained 152,85% (more than 3x 42,67% = 128,01%).

So, we conclude that, SSO and UPRO reached more than their purposes.

It's not always that way. In periods of extreme volatility, Leveraged ETFs loses value, but also gains more value in other periods.

The leveraged ETFs aren't perfect but I think with reasonable market timing, leveraged ETFs are a good way to increase our returns.

 

It was not very clear to me what you wrote.
However, I only write from my personal observations.
There are always many different market opinions.
I have not therefore changed my opinion on this.

 

Directly from your 1st chart, you marked the 1st low in early 1970s with an up purple arrow.

I think it was done selectively.

The pattern match better if you move that arrow back to mid 1960s. That means the big drop has not happened yet and it is likely in the making.

 

That's your opinion. I have a different view.
Let´s see what is going to happen over the next months or years.

 

I'm sure someone has already pointed this out but I bet that the odds of the market "being higher in 5 years" at any time you utter that phrase is probably correct 80%+ of the time over the past 100 years.

My Prediction: There will be some wild swings in volatility over the next 2 years