Below are the charts along with brief commentary. The following two monthly charts give a long-term perspective for the S&P 500. I am going to look again closely for the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013. In December 1980, the S&P 500 closed above to its resistance line and then fell for 20 months. For that reason, even if the index closes above to its resistance line, the fall will remain possible. On the other hand, if the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down. At this time, the two paths remain open but the very bearish sentiment supports the continuation of the rise. Let's see what happens. This month and next month will be very important to trace the path for long term.
I'll be curious to see how this plays out. Duarte, you must be Portuguese? If your taxi cab driving neighbor (or brother in-law) starts asking if "investing" is easy- how can he get started, then markets are likely to tank. No kidding, in 2007, I had a 3rd-world bar owner (buteco) ask me that question on a Friday night. That Monday, markets proceeded their slide down. It took around 4-5 years to get back to that level where he was "interested" in investing. Next time I go to that city, I'll ask him if he's still interested
Yes I am Portuguese. According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), investors are more bearish than bullish.
I am going to look to the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013. As I have written before now, my guess about what is happening is that the S&P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1984. At this time the key is to understand if the breakout above the long-term resistance line was or not decisive. When the breakout is decisive, the resistance level then becomes a support level, but I don´t know yet whether or not this will happen. My big question is this: Will red support line hold?