Why the S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Duarte, Jan 5, 2013.

  1. TILT2

    TILT2

    If the Fed wants it to happen, it can happen. It's that simple.
     
    #51     Mar 11, 2013
  2. i don't think the fed wants this Ben just wanted to feed the world money so the market would stop going down and companies would hire again. this is a monster he has no answers too. what can they even do at this point?

     
    #52     Mar 11, 2013
  3. S2007S

    S2007S

    You cannot base any past charts on where this market is headed, when it is driven by trillions and trillions of worthless dollars and continues to be pumped up with QE and the buying of billions of dollars of mortgage backed securities you do not have a "REAL" market place, what you see today is all fantasy, this market and the economy is running on air. This is a make believe market, take away all those trillions of dollars that has pumped this global economy back into make believe land and you wouldnt have a market....show me a market that can stand on its own without all these free handouts....this is a make believe market, once it corrects and falls which always happens you will be able to buy the SPX under 1000 again....people didnt believe years back the SPX would drop over 50% and it did, it will happen again. Patience
     
    #53     Mar 14, 2013
  4. S2007S

    S2007S


    This a monster he has no answers is right.... thats why when this starts to collapse once again there will be nothing they can do. BUBBLE ben bernanke has created a market the world has never seen, he didnt save this market, this market is in worse shape than it was back in 2007, you just havent seen it yet. When this unfolds it will be on a level never seen before. Bigger than the last financial crisis this market is still in. Just keep a close look on China.
     
    #54     Mar 14, 2013
  5. S2007S

    S2007S

    Everyday there is someone predicting either a 20% jump in the markets or a huge bear market, who to believe, who to believe???



    Bear Market to Take Hold in 2013: Expert


    Published: Thursday, 14 Mar 2013 | 4:46 AM ET
    By: Shai Ahmed
    Associate Editor, CNBC


    A long term bear market is around the corner and will last until 2018, with the Dow losing up to 30 percent of its current value, Kerry Balenthiran, author of "The 17.6 Years Stock Market Cycle", told CNBC.

    "My research identified long term 17.6 year secular bull and bear markets. We're in a long term bear market. [But] there is a flip-side which is the commodities cycle. When they decline you get a strong bull market in stocks because input stocks go down. But this bear market will continue until 2018 with the Dow at around 10,000," Balenthiran said.

    He added that the rally currently taking place would continue for at least the next three months, but said stocks would start falling in October to November.

    The idea of market cycles is not new and alternative cycle theories abound, ranging from forecasts on the number of years for a bull/bear market to the more offbeat including the use of lunar cycles to predict the most profitable times for stock market investment.

    Balenthiran's predictions jar with the recent rally which has seen markets around the world post new highs– the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its first nine-day winning streak since 1996 Wednesday closing up at 1,4455.28 and the S&P 500 was also within striking distance of its all-time closing high on Wednesday at 1,554.52.

    Balenthiran looks back over the last 100 years and also identifies mini-cycles within the longer-term ones.

    "My cycle has identified bull market cycles of 4.4 years and bear markets are 2.2 years. So 2013 is a low as well as in 2015 and 2018 and then we'll see a long-term uptrend to 2035 but I see a lot of volatility until 2018," he added.

    He said the low in 2018 would also be a "great opportunity" to buy stocks in anticipation of the longer term move upwards.

    However, this bearish view is not shared by all within the financial markets. Swiss bank Sarasin's chief strategist expects the S&P to break through the 2,000 barrier by 2015 and a Goldman Sachs note earlier this week said London's blue-chip FTSE100 index would continue to rise to 7,200 within 12 months.


    In earlier trading the FTSE 100 hovered around the 6,500,mark maintaining the momentum which has seen it soar by 10 percent so far this year.

    Balenthiran said the break in 2018 would likely be triggered by the commodities sector.

    "I'm expecting a peak in gold and commodities in 2015 but when that bubble bursts we get the low in 2015. Then there is a bounce and then a sustained uptrend once input costs go down year-on-year and consumers have more money in their pockets," he said.

    Balenthiran admitted that factors such as inflation and central bank intervention through monetary policy easing can distort the cycle and skew final predictions. "I use the cycle to predict things going forward and I have high conviction in that and time will tell," saying he couldn't guarantee any particular outcome "for sure."
     
    #55     Mar 14, 2013
  6. S2007S

    S2007S

    Take note of what the director of floor operations at dme securities said!!!!!!

    "The Fed's pumping $85 billion a month into the market so there's no way for it to go down, but everyone's got their finger on the trigger because they don't know when this is going to turn."



    NO WAY FOR IT TO GO DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!


    Stocks March Higher: Dow Gains for 10th Day, Up Almost 11% in 2013; S&P 500 Nears Record Closing High


    Published: Thursday, 14 Mar 2013 | 12:18 PM ET
    By: JeeYeon Park
    CNBC.com Writer


    Stocks held their gains across the board Thursday, with the Dow higher for the 10th-consecutive session and the S&P 500 within striking distance of its all-time closing high, as investors cheered a better-than-expected weekly jobless claims report.

    "This could be the greatest bull run since the 80s only because there's nowhere else for investors to go," said Alan Valdes, director of floor operations at DME Securities. "The Fed's pumping $85 billion a month into the market so there's no way for it to go down, but everyone's got their finger on the trigger because they don't know when this is going to turn."
     
    #56     Mar 14, 2013
  7. some of us have been fully invested since 2006

    but what's different about this market and the last bull market is how many young workers are on the sidelines

    apparently, when the market crashed they panicked and sold their 401k's at the bottom

    like the man said, "Once a cat sits on a hot stove, it will never sit on a hot stove again (or a cold one for that matter.)"
     
    #57     Mar 14, 2013
  8. no kidding, I manage some conservative money for friends and family

    but I trade forex for my own personal account

    sometimes, you think you have made them money, but all that has really happened is the dollar has gone down

    and the dx doesn't tell the real story

    for instance, right now it is up there at 83, but that doesn't neccessarily mean that the dollar is strong, it just means it is strong against the other fiat currencies

    even gold and crude are no longer a standard to go by

    it doesn't mean much if you are invested, but it means quite a bit if you are sitting in cash

    in otherwords, there is no such thing as cash anymore, you are always long or short the dollar
     
    #58     Mar 14, 2013
  9. Duarte

    Duarte

    The two paths described remain open as long as the S&P 500 remains below to 1625.

    If, over the next two months, the S&P 500 remains below to 1575, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 1, but if the S&P500 rises above 1625, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 2.

    I will continue to evaluate on a monthly basis to determine the need to change the initial plan.


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    #59     Apr 1, 2013
  10. S2007S

    S2007S


    This entire market is being inflated by BUBBLE ben bernanke...these charts will prove worthless once all the money printing ends....the entire market rally has nothing but air underneath it....wait till they stop pumping up the economy with worthless dollars
     
    #60     Apr 2, 2013