good point most of what they call an "Edge" is just historians betting that what worked will continue to work Scientists don't like visionary predictors because they don't know how to measure it but like I say, it is just in my conservative account, and we are very old fashioned over there
Are you talking about this stuff? http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/sp-cycles-1928/ Here's an image from that post:
I hadn't heard of it so I Googled "gold adjusted s&p" and found that. I didn't really read the whole article. Is it legit or is it just crazy stuff?
no, Rickards is a very smart man The CIA hired him to play a currency war against Harvard He messed the whole deal up by introducing gold But I wouldn't go so far as to classify him as a goldbug And you know, there is no sense trying to reason with them Just something to think about
About the pattern in the Price ROC indicator what I am saying is that: After the triple bottom pattern in 1994, the S&P 500 rose during 5 years. In 2011/2012 the indicator did the same pattern that was done in 1994. So, this suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.
I don't know what it means to OP, but to me it means a throw under after diminishing swings. Means more bull movement. As of now, however, (since 2009) the price is still in the diminishing swings as he has marked. So the bull movement will be contingent upon a break-out on the bear's side.
What if US deficit issue becomes a European debt crisis par excellence during that time frame? Could also happen ... http://www.economist.com/printedition/covers/2013-01-03/ap-e-eu-la-me-na-uk US budget deficit continues to grow -> Speculative outflows from US$ debt -> Higher US interest rates -> US Economy weakens -> budget deficit grows worse -> equity markets fall -> bigger speculative outflows from US$ -> interest rates even higher -> US economy weaker still -> consumption collapses and can't be offset by increased exports from weaker US$ -> equity markets will be going down, not up ...
After a long term analysis made, I will adopt a passive strategy of buy and hold. For this strategy, I will now use 10 000 dollars and, maybe in one or two years' time, I will use more 10 000 dollars. I'll do this for each of the following risk profiles /ETFs: Higher Risk / UPRO Medium-higher Risk /SSO Medium Risk / SPY