Why the recession (and the bear market) is now over and done...

Ivanovich · Apr 12, 2009

Quote from ralph00:

Check some of the dated diction in port's post. He clearly lifted it from some prognosticator circa 1930. Nice April Fool's.
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He "lifts" other people's work all the time.

trefoil · Apr 12, 2009

Googled the opening line:

Pompous Prognosticators

2nd quote down. Prez of the NYSE, in Jan 1928.

Clubber Lang · Apr 12, 2009

Quote from Port1385:

I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future. I feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.

This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.

The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin.

Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street. The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before.

The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most. I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress.

The spring of 2009 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity. While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.
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This is the signal for the top of the bear market rally.

Port said to go "all in" on FAZ when it was in the 40's last month. Now it's below 11 and he's wildly bullish.

piezoe · Apr 12, 2009

Port, i guess it's you against George Soros. (May the best man win!)

Roman Candle · Apr 12, 2009

It's all about jobs jobs jobs jobs.

Bottom Line: The market continues to behave in a bullish way, and a short-term buy signal has been upgraded to a medium-term buy signal. It is possible that it is the beginning of a new bull market, but the technical evidence says that this is only a bear market rally.

Illum · Apr 12, 2009

Quote from trefoil:

Googled the opening line:

Pompous Prognosticators

2nd quote down. Prez of the NYSE, in Jan 1928.
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lol, good one port

lrm21 · Apr 12, 2009

Quote from Port1385:

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Nice I like what you did there

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

Here is my favorite

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

Its coming

short&naked · Apr 12, 2009

Quote from hayman:

No offense Port, but are you puffing on the crack pipe again ??

As the other posters mentioned, we are far from in the clear. Major things to worry about:

1) A job loss absolute amount and rate, that has been unparalleled in prior recessions;

2) A spiraling debt, that will make our debt less attractive to those financing it;

3) An accelerating wave of foreclosures;

4) An expected new wave of foreclosures in 2010, when a lot of adjustable rate mortgages are due for "an increase";

5) As a poster above mentioned, our extremely tenuous banking situation;

6) A falling dollar;

Need I go on ????

My educated guess here is that the market trades in the 6500 to 8500 range for quite some time, and that the bias will be downward.

If the SEC, in its infinite stupidity decide to tax stock transactions, watch out below..............
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...and no war to get us out of it.

SmithTheTrader · Apr 12, 2009

All,

Technical and Fundemental is NOT the real push behind the equity market, but is the sentiment.

Due to wahtever reason, all the "bad news" became unavailable to public (like the stress test result from the bank) and we suddently have a lot of positive news emerge like so called "sign of botton up" signal , and the impact is that most of the herd (not pro initially) are rushing into the market in the last few weeks and pushed up the market. This and then follow by pro and they ride the flow together with the herd (even they all know the uptrend is false and the fundemental of the economy remain really really bad.) But this is how the price vs speculation work in real world, and we all suddenly back to bull market again.

Nest week we will have several critical earnings, but the market expectation to those earning are so low and a small "surprice" will pump the market up again, even if a BS CEO in one of the company say something like this - " we are having the worst quater earning in the last 20 years, but we see sign of recovery and we believe we will get a much better result next quater" (Which is completely BS as who know what the hell happen in the next 90 days ) - but you know what ? market will take it and move up for another 300 points !!

Specterx · Apr 12, 2009

Quote from Port1385:

I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future. I feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices.

This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years.

The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin.

Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street. The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before.

The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most. I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress.

The spring of 2009 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity. While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.
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Jesus dude....

I mean, personally I did start loading up on "investment" stocks when we broke 740. But IMO it's very unlikely that we have seen the end of the decline, and future prospects for this country are pretty awful. The worst thing is that we don't seem to be making any positive changes as a result of this crisis. Instead we're just taking on more debt, keeping the zombie companies alive, retaining the same hapless and bankrupt politics, and generally maintaining the privileges and position of the existing elites that have led us over the cliff.

I think we might stabilize or reverse the decline in about 40 years - might. But it'll all be downhill until then. There certainly is and will continue to be value in individual companies or business sectors, there will still be areas of the economy that exhibit dynamism and innovation, but I don't think you want to be long SPY.