Housing bubble is area specific, it can simply reshuffle. Lots of areas very close to the hot spots which are dirt cheap and rock bottom pricing. A correction here means a look elsewhere, as long as money supply grows. Obviously Tom Paine has zero idea about how the system works and the whole overpublicized deficit/surplus debate. There was an operational "surplus", heavily manipulated by CLinton's accounting. Yeah, a little known fact is that the beloved Bill Clinton was a master at juking the stats. Cause putting the humonogous Medicare & S.S. obligations in tiny footnotes can create a "surplus". The way this country's financial system works is one of perpetual growing government debt. It's probably not going anywhere. And there are many things the government can spend on and borrow more to do it. The concept is GLOBALIZATION not Chinatization. The corporate pigs are already looking for the next new sweatshop land as China's pricing is going up. Same goes on in India. They are looking at Eastern Europe actually for Tech offshoring and the rest of Asia for the manufacturing offshoring.
Will agree with the first 2, but the 3rd is a coin toss. The third will be more determined by our incompetent congress and what dumbass law they pass next on free trade. One thing you forgot to mention is the world is flush with cash so a major recession is hard to see unless the U.S. falls to a 3 world status.
I don't know the answer, but I'm going to try and find it. But I would place a small, friendly wager - like a good drink if were shooting the shit in a pub right now- on an estimate that the good ole' USA consumes at least 35% of China's exports, and probably closer to 50%. Check out this link for some incredibly stimulating facts and opinions on the 'interconnectiveness' of the USA/China trade relationship, and China's massive reliance on the US consumer so that it can just barely grow enough jobs to keep the peasants from rioting: http://www.itulip.com/economicMAD.htm
Unfortunately for all of us, it's inevitable. However, we may not see another recession until the financial system built on fiat currency implodes..... that could be 20 years or more.