Why the employment data is quite desperate

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Tsing Tao, Apr 9, 2012.

  1. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Without getting into the shenanigans of whether or not the BLS is accurate by any definition of the word, lets just assume they are for the scope of this argument (hah) and have a read at Dr. Hussman's latest weekly missive. The link for the whole entry is below, but I'll just include the interesting info on the employment part - which should give us an impression of just how bad the Fed has made things for everyone (except Wall Street).

  2. Makes perfect sense. US monetary policy has forced those who planned to exit the workforce, to remain, or get back in, heating up competition for jobs that aren't there anymore.
  3. No dispute from me. The internals of the latest report sucked too. Both Feb and Mar looked worse than Jan. The only ray of hope is that both are still preliminary, so maybe the revisions will make things look substantially better. That's happened before.
    Absent that, there's trouble.
    In Mar, temporary help services swung to negative from firmly positive, which was a large part of the drop in services employment. Not a good sign at all.
    There was one small inconsistency in the Mar report: the manufacturer's diffusion index went back up to levels more consistent with prior months, after dipping in Feb, even though goods-producing jobs created stayed relatively low. Other than that, major suckage.
    Globally, the world economy is still stuck in low gear, with Europe continuing its circular firing squad habit. It's going to be hard to work against that resistance.
  4. Trouble is all those job gains are mostly with medium to mediocre pay so that explains the sluggish increase in disposable income. Factor in high food & gas prices than you have a very good recipe for stagflation. The economy have to create some 200k plus jobs per month just to keep pace with new/old workers entering/re-entering the work force so that is why this number is very key. Last week job report of 120k is a first warning of the mid year doldrums that we accustomed to. So here we go again: sell (or sell short) in May and stay tuned.

    Manipulation or not, they can't hide the fact that things are slowing down or even decreasing. :D