Why the delayed crash?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by aphexcoil, Sep 28, 2002.

  1. I don't understand -- it has been around 15 years since we've had a full fledged crash. Why haven't we gotten a REAL selloff yet? What is still holding this house of cards up?

    These markets want to exhale and it seems like it is a slow bleed rather than a swift ass-kicking.

    I'm surprised we aren't tripping the breakers yet.
  2. we are in the middle of a crash. it has so far been pretty orderly (it only sounds like an oxymoron).
  3. IMO, by providing the support needed to prevent a crash, the "big boys" are able to continue a long distribution in which they are able to get out of their holdings, while keeping enough "hope" alive so that the little guy holds the bag.

    How many non-traders do you know that have completely liquidated their 401k, even though it has had an endless bleeding?

    If everyone dumps and gets it overwith, then no one really gets out. Everyone ends up holding the bag equally.

    I believe the game is played to keep the propaganda machine going so that the big guys win, and the little guy is a sucker.

    Case in point - as much as I avoid conventional business news, I happend to catch a few minutes of Nightly Business Report, and they had some dufus saying it "might be time to nibble at some tech stocks" like AMAT, and giving a friendly knowledgable wink as he said it.

    Have to admit it's a real bargain now, p/e is down to 782, and how many "little guys" are technically astute enough to see that it's in a relentless downtrend?

    So the campaign endlessly advises to just stand there, don't worry about the chairs filling up, the music won't stop, youl be just fine.

    "Think long term"

    "Dont try to time the market"

    "Ignore the fact that you are getting wiped out"

    "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain"

    More and more little guys are waking up to this, but many still arent.

    I think most on this forum realize, that as hard and dangerous as trading is, "buy and hold" is financial suicide in this environment.

    But gently letting the market down, and stopping crashes helps obscure this truth.

    Sorry to have been so rambling, but it is truly sickening what is being done to investors who still have any trust.
  4. You forgot "Let's Roll!"
  5. nitro


    NYSE curbs.

  6. Cramer says without the curbs the Dow would be at 6800 by now.
  7. Good post swtrader.

    How many folks really understand that they are being snookered at every opportunity?

    Not many.
  8. When you put a frog in a pot of boiling water it jumps out.

    When you put it in a pot of cool water and slowly heat it, it eventually boils to death.

    The public is in a pot of water that's half hot.

  9. hi,

    the crash will not happen since everyone is expecting it. in 1987 only the hard core technical analysis people saw it coming. the public was blissfully unaware. now, everyone is saying, if we can only get capitulation, the markets will rebound. in addition, the buy/hold mantra is so ingrained in the public that there probably will not be a "panic" sell situation. it appears that the slow grind down will continue untill it stops, then the equity market's will go FLAT for a LONG LONG time. the public will lose interest in the market, only then will the new bull begin.


  10. Amkeer


    the sideways pattern or basing pattern. Its a little early to fully see it, but give a few months and it will become more evident. We should stay in the sideways pattern for months, maybe years. 7500-9000 dow, 1100-1350 naz. Then maybe a blow off and strong bull trend up in 8 years!

    Good luck
    #10     Sep 29, 2002