no, show me how you use probability theory as it relates to TA. im not a statistcian either, but i am associated with several skilled ones who would like to see that of which you speak. surft
I simply don't believe, based on your past posts, that you're incapable of understanding it. I'll leave it to others to try to explain it if they choose to do so. With respect surf, I've already described the process. I'm not going to post up my own code. But I don't need to do that. Using probability theory you can take a given set of starting conditions and calculate how likely this or that outcome would be. For example, you can take a die with 9 sides and calculate how likely it will be that a 9 will come up if a fair die is thrown. TA is like that. Your problem with TA is that you cling to the belief that it's about predicting the future. It is nothing of the kind. Probability theory can't predict which number will come up if you throw a fair die. TA can't predict which way prices will move. Finished. EOS.
Absolutely not. What I will do, though, is this. You give me a date. I'll post up a chart of the ES with my trade signals below it. If you then choose to say to me 'Anyone could have created this chart and added the signals in afterwards', we can just be done with it.
In financial market, price dist. is self destructive, so it may not be suitable compared to life insurance. Self destructive = lot of fat tail, look at mess at CDS market right now. For me, TA is a language can be used to describe price action,i.e., trend line and ma can be used to define âtrendâ, TA to trader, like math to engineer. So may I say TA+ unique observation = success. Lot of people failed due to the fact that they donât have unique observation, has nothing to do with TA.
I think TA if used with price action is the most helpful. I used to use just stochs to trade but then I started getting to many false signals or getting in when half the move is over cause I waited to long for confirmation. I then started using auto trendlines and let the chart be my friend and then confimed them with the stochs and beautiful. I trade intraday minis.
This thread is a waste of time, no benefit for people that know how to implement TA apart from certain posts that provided useful information for TA users.
Marketsurfer... Something is amiss and you and I both know it. Its existence and popularity (T.A) is self-evident, all you have to do is to accept that the market moves according to the perceptions of Traders in the market, and this in turn is evidenced by the way that simple support and Resistance lines one can draw for example on the 240min chart of S&P where simple rules of TAwork to define channels breakouts and changes that can be evidenced by trend line breaks. In addition let me quote the following excerpt from Investo-pedia, that online powerhouse guide Advance/Decline Index: A technical analysis tool that represents the total difference between the number of advancing and declining security prices. This index is considered one of the best indicators of market movements as a whole. Stock indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average only tell us the strength of 30 stocks, whereas the advance/decline index can provide much more insight into the movements of the market. That's evidence 2, and lastly if I may point to the success of many mechanical systems developed using easy-language that do indeed make a profit, these are systems based on Technical analysis, many of which are routinely re-produced in Barrons, Stocks & Commodities Magazine (primarily a Technical Traders Magazine, and Traders Magazine, let alone websites like Stock Charts dedicated to the provision of Price information and charting. If you believe in Free Market Economics you will also believe that the readership and ongoing subscription levels of these outlets is in itself evidence of the implied popularity of these methods.. (not perfectly but indicatively of course). This is why its not worth it to arrange a meeting... you obviously cant even accept that it is popular and therefore credible. since the markets move according to perception of the traders active in the said market. Your argument is as ridiculous as someone today claiming the earth is still flat, despite the evidence clearly available to you in order to make an informed decision. I question your judgement if in light of even just the above you still cannot accept that it is even used by a significant number of market participants when Bloomberg CNBC (I know there just TV stations) introduce Members regularly who provide analysis by way of Technical Charting and analysis... Even options are traded heavily using Technical analysis in order to understand better if an option is indeed fairly priced or not, otherwise you'd for example take a trade in OEX options with everything correct fundamentally before and during the trade still to come out with a loss because you failed to understand the extent of Volatility included in the premium for the option prior to any position established... Technical Analysis doesn't work huh? come again dude... your position is bankrupt and you know it is... that's why I assert all is not what it seems here...either that or your incredibly stupid or poorly schooled Paul
it's popular therefore it works? am i understanding the gist of your argument? yeah, its popular. the PUBLIC loves TA--- looks like easy money, witness the new e.signal advertisments as an example... why is the HERD normally wrong, if your argument is correct? something is amiss here..... the success of many mechanical systems?? surely you jest! simply stated---the market moves in the direction of the most money pushing it. this can be one person with the proliferation of monster capital pools aka hedge funds OR many people. So, TA can predict when a group of or single fund will decide to buy/ sell a particular instrument? Come on, dude, your not that naive'. today, one person can hold the market rocking power that 1000's did back when dow theory/TA was first applied....its a different environment man, totally different. TA divisions are generally part of funds MARKETING departments...TA sells, it seems to make sense therefore its used to illustrate the PAST to the clients of the fund OR of the news outlet. people LOVE pretty pictures. surf
See what I mean folks?... I NEVER SAID ANYTHING ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MAKING ANY PREDICTION, WE MAKE THE PREDICTION BASED ON THE history of the price action itself made clearer by the use of Technical Analysis... The purpose of trading is to make money. The purpose of Technical analysis is as an aid to where the money is flowing. Contrary to your opinion it does indeed matter that many use it because a Trader is always trying to move WITH the HEARD not against it, as such whether we like it or not we must therefore concern ourselves at least in part to what people are doing.. is that simple as a point of principle. Mechanical systems work (not many traders are effective but they work, and many Investment banks use Algorithmic trading in many guises but they are in basic form Technical Analysis based trading systems, Tradestation has been around for a long time and has a reasonably high penetration as an institutional platform when compared to many other platforms.... Man... what is the matter with you? Also I never said anything about technical analysis itself doing any predicting, rather it described what happened and what IS... Prediction is an extrapolation of what was and IS by the Trader NOT necessarily Technical Analysis. No one method works easily, even Technical Analysis is a difficult discipline to interpret and understand, my point is that you seem to dismiss it as even being popular or in use by a large number of even Retail traders and investors. I had my initiation to Technical Trading From two huge names, Chuck Mellon and AJ Monte and they introduced me to Technical Analysis as a Momentum Trader and they are worth money and yet you continue to deny this?.. man no more of this nonsense...PLEASE.. your replies are just hot air..look how many posts you've made ... its a wonder you have any time to trade... If you Trade at all that is.... Technical Analysis will provide me an edge in that it is of course impossible to predict accurately, but if you deny that the ARMS index, MACD, RSI, CCI, WADX, DMI, Lines of support and Resistance, TIKI TRINQ, 50 and 200 day moving average somehow are irrelevant as an aid to understand market sentiment currently so I can then make my own market perditions then you are a fool.. pure and simple... I assert once more... your modus-Operandi here is becoming Transparent. You are playing the Devils Advocate. I just cannot believe that you could be so "stupid" and belligerent in the face of so much evidence. Im all done here folks... its a shame really the argument needs to move on to which T.A techniques are better suited to particular time frames..e.g. MACD is a lagging indicator not a lading one and which timeframes do Traders find it suitable / unsuitable..etc etc... this is where we should be by now... As such I wont answer more replies on this issue untill we can move this one along a bit... sorry but, we both know this is right mate..