"Why Technical Analysis is Nonsense"; Views?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Trend Following, Jan 12, 2008.



  1. the true believers are starting to rally. i have spoken directly with and have been published with several of the finest minds in finance, plus have traded since 1990 with 1000's of hours of screen time prior to reaching this point. my trading and market knowledge is still evolving--- how about some factual statements backing up your claims, i would be happy to change my mind. in addition, i would be pleased to take your challenge, any time, any place with any group-- i bring two people and game on--- rip us apart with logic and redicule (sic). LMAO!!

    surf
     
    #131     Jan 18, 2008

  2. happy 2008, plogic. happy to see you are well.

    you should ask your friend jim rogers what he thinks of TA. certainly the wealth he has would dwarf the combined wealth of the others you mention.

    these succesful TA practioners you reference, would they happen to follow your teachings? just a thought--

    as i stated earlier, those who defend TA most vigerously normally have a vested interest in making cash/fame from teaching it.

    best regards,

    surf
     
    #132     Jan 18, 2008
  3. Yes, believers but more than that . . . people that actually trade with real money.
    We trade, we prosper . . . we thrive.
    Yes, you have spoken with some of the finest & oldest closed minded minds in finance . . . so have we. We just choose not to duplicate their failures.
    Yes, you are published . . . so are some of us.
    To date I personally have logged over 19,000 hours of unbiased research on the screen and I know of others that have far exceeded that.
    Our search is still evolving as well but we do ours with an open mind.
    We do not expect you to change your mind. The effort would be fruitless. You are insignificant to our success. We do not need to prove our prosperity any more than you have to prove yours. What you ask of us . . . first present of yourself first.
    Challenge? To the winner go the spoils? This dead horse has died, decomposed and even his ashes have become the building blocks to a new life form.
    Congratulations on your recent YM trade.
     
    #133     Jan 18, 2008
  4. Happy 2008 to you as well.
    Mr. Rogers is an acquaintance not a friend and he isn't essential to my succcess so what he thinks is irrelevant.
    TA is a vast environment of ideas and models. As in every environment there is success and there is failure.
    . . . those who denied most vigorously that the world was round, never left dry land.
     
    #134     Jan 18, 2008
  5. Wow, 18 years of trading and still evolving? Congrats, that is rare.

    I apologize if that wasn't you in that blog, surf. But I swear to God I read in the past 6 months that you were either quitting trading or that you had been unable to get profitable. Wasn't that you?

    A few others have mentioned that they have see you trading unprofitably as well...is it all bs?
     
    #135     Jan 18, 2008


  6. ok, thanks.

    yes, 2007 was very difficult--- but the only blog i have focused on trading is the surf report.

    best,

    surf
     
    #136     Jan 18, 2008

  7. thank you. i disagree, but i understand and apprieciate the kind words.

    regards,

    surf
     
    #137     Jan 18, 2008
  8. Here is a pertinent quote from Marty Schwartz regarding TA:

    “I always laugh at people who say, ‘I’ve never met a rich technician.’ I love that! It is such an arrogant, nonsensical response. I used fundamentals for nine years and got rich as a technician.”

    So there is at least one!

    May the Schwartz be with you.

    :)

    Sincerely,
    Daryl
     
    #138     Jan 19, 2008
  9. These are the results of a trading simulation using the stochastic indicator and Merrill Lynch stock symbol MER. Trading is long positions only, data is 31.03 years daily closing prices, risk is 2 % of account equity per trade, initial capital $ 100000, slippage 0.10 %.

    20 period stochastic
    403 trades
    Total profit $ 136752

    40 period stochastic
    277 trades
    Total profit $ 80107

    60 period stochastic
    216 trades
    Total profit $ 77660

    100 period stochastic
    173 trades
    Total profit $ 59765

    200 period stochastic
    126 trades
    Total profit $ 37816
     
    #139     Jan 19, 2008
  10. These are the results of a trading simulation using the stochastic indicator and Countrywide Financial stock symbol CFC. Trading is long positions only, data is 20.19 years daily closing prices, risk is 2 % of account equity per trade, initial capital $ 100000, slippage 0.10 %.

    10 period stochastic
    388 trades
    Total profit $ 16960

    20 period stochastic
    264 trades
    Total profit $ 53848

    40 period stochastic
    161 trades
    Total profit $ 46965

    60 period stochastic
    133 trades
    Total profit $ 36488

    100 period stochastic
    120 trades
    Total profit $ 15149

    200 period stochastic
    79 trades
    Total profit $ 18225
     
    #140     Jan 19, 2008