Why TA does not work

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by JMN459, Oct 9, 2012.

  1. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    Can you be a bit more specific on your live trade calls...entry price, stop loss and minimum profit target?

    That's how I posted my live calls here, for example:

     
    #61     Oct 14, 2012
  2. cornix

    cornix

    Yep... TA as we trade it may be "archaic" but it's actually more like comparing art to science. Which is more "archaic"? :)

    Discretionary TA is definitely very hard to replicate and/or backtest, but does it mean it's less effective than quant approach? I doubt it.
     
    #62     Oct 14, 2012
  3. I do not day trade. I do not use stop loss.

    my NG target is 3.7. my mental stop loss is at 3.5. currently it is pullback a little between 3.56~3.64, if that range broken, I will add or exit.

    for UNG calls, till its expiration


     
    #63     Oct 15, 2012
  4. the world is not linear
    the market reality is not modellable
    TA makes thing simpler with linear thinking/modeling, but twist the market reality. that is why computer is never a match to human brain.

    if the market can be modelled, then let the computer do it.

    why I do not use stop loss?

    reason one, the market is not crisp, wrong/right is not math add/substract. market has lots of phases, each phases take time. bottom is a process, top is a process, consolidation is a process. what I concern most is whether I judge the phase correctly and apply proper strategy to trade.
     
    #64     Oct 15, 2012
  5. The whole T.A./ Systems is comlete B*S*. The big funds/smart money realized this decades ago. It's just an inustry to sell more systems,software etc.
     
    #65     Oct 15, 2012
  6. Having said that there are defintiely "inefficencies" that happen that can be exploited. It's not a ssytem or T.A. as such but "loopholes" to exploit.


    As for things like breakouts, Turtles trading system, Moving averages etc..LOL What a joke!
     
    #66     Oct 15, 2012
  7. cornix

    cornix

    Hmm, seems we have confusion again on what TA "is". :)

    For me it's not simple modelling, it's trading based on practical observations made, which spot recurring behavior patterns of the market. And stop-loss is integral part of this approach, because when you observe the pattern, you also notice where is the point of pattern more likely not being valid anymore and use it as your stop-loss level.
     
    #67     Oct 15, 2012
  8. cornix

    cornix

    They work like a charm. :)
     
    #68     Oct 15, 2012
  9. another reason is: trading is a business. in business, any legal way you can be applied. if someone is cheating, if legally, you can not catch him or take him to court.

    not eveyone is playing in rules. rules make you think in the box, trap you. you can not think out of the box, there are lots of outliers outside TA. those outliers are the most profitable.


    that is why each day we received lots of spam email about stock buying.
     
    #69     Oct 15, 2012
  10. These fuckin idiots failed on live accounts , and are selling their losing methods to noobs.

    http://connection.ebscohost.com/c/articles/3725780/richard-dennis-closes-shop-again

    And the noobs need to be told , it all works.
     
    #70     Oct 15, 2012