They all try to strike it big - with that one huge trade, and be able to lazily say "I told you so!" ... instead of winning on average a healthy steady income while grinding in some effort on top of it, and sometimes letting winners ride out. They get too nervous when actually getting a move right, because they are so used to being wrong and losing ...
So true, an excellent observation and we have all been there if still not stuck there... The market efficiency, causes it to move in waves as do snakes... hence, it is not wrong to believe a Top or a Bottom has been reached at any point if, and only if one would time it's temporary exhaustion and know when to exit.
Basically I hate dealings in generalities. Traders and investors tirelessly are in search of and reevaluate data and indicators for clues at potential tops and bottoms for no other reason than to cover and reverse positions. That's obvious. If you can't with any degree of intuition, subconscious rote a result of being engulfed amid price action all day and strong fundamentals and technicals call a top or bottom, one can't say with a straight face they got in on a position to look for a bottom or top. On the slim chance they did, it was dumb luck and likely bailed at the sight of the first retrace. It's not trading. It's gambling. Many, many traders scalp against trends because corrective wave patterns are probabilistically more predictive trades. I swing and position trade, often cover conservatively and then scalp or momentum trade against the trend looking for a new position entry along the way. If you don't do this, your words are empty.
as usual, every one 'knows' that this strategy deffinately doesnt work. yet i bet most of you havent even traded a similar system.
As a quintessentially amateurish trader, my larger concern is how long does it take to change, and what do I have to do to overcome the urge to trade against the trend? As to why I have continually traded against the trend, unless there is news out on the industry or the stock, it feels to me like the right price has already been established. I keep thinking that the market is efficient. The right price was established yesterday. If the price continues to trend in the absence of new information, I conclude that the price is now wrong. It feels safer to fade the trend than to follow it. Unfortunately, my conclusions have been wrong more often than not. Great question though. Hopefully this self-examination will be a step in the right direction for me.
the news you get is manipulative,so as a trader ,the news is only phsychological and often shadows your sense, like a thief that you are suddenly focusing on,you no longer place your goal as primary thought,so you are best at taking all news with a grain of salt, or you could use it as a contrary indicator
cnbc is owned by general electric who bought out a brokerage house in the 80"s,started with a k,they are basically a big salesman,i used to change my position when they spoke because they must know more than me,lost money,then i used them as a contrarian,lost money,now i don't even turn on the tv,use bloomberg on the computer as background noise
that was my problem when I first started, and I bet the problem of most that counter-trend as a beginner.
I have yet to find a method that does well trading with an established trend, that is not to say that others can't do it well. But I am a scalper in ES and almost all my trades are against the trend, once in I desire a new mini-trend to develop going my way for a little time of 1-4 points. Timeframes are important, where my trade is going countertrend, someone else is waiting for the market to retrace for continuation of their trend. Older I get, more I realize where I get in is less important as to how I spot price action on where to get out. So long as winning percentage does not get below 40%, I do well since I think importance of small losses and bigger profits.