Why RIMM and AAPL are long term shorts

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by detective, Oct 6, 2007.

  1. Both RIMM and AAPL are long term shorts. Starting with a small short position at these prices and scaling in will make you money in the long run. I'm talking 1-3 years. Not holding for a week or 2. I'm talking long term short positions, not daytrading or swingtrading short these members of the Four Horsemen.

    RIMM's market cap is over 60 Billion, AAPL's market cap is over 140 Billion, do people really except these companies to continue their earnings growth rates?

    It was like CSCO in 2000 when its market cap went past MSFT's, really, was the router market ever bigger and more profitable than the market for computer O/S and software? Maybe the router market had a higher growth rate then but the overall market size was and is much smaller than the computer O/S and software market.

    Look at the big picture people. RIMM sells that Blackberry gadget which is easily substitutable with any decent cell phone. And AAPL with its ipod, iphone, iXXXX, they are all fads and gadgets that are commodity products. The ipod is an mp3 player. The iphone is a cellphone. No one uses overpriced Macs. What makes it so special??? Might as well buy DELL instead at a much cheaper valuation if you want to purchase a company that sells commodity products.
  2. Quotes like this have been around since I started to follow stocks in 1999 and over the years have proven to be just noise, static, useless drivel, etc..
  3. Unfortunately the market does not wish to hear your opinion nor will it yield to your justifications.

    Your broad spectrum timeline is very analytical in all regrads (1-3 year short). LOL!
  4. Nattdog


    If you don't like a stocks long term prospects, don't own it for the long term. but for god sakes don't short it. Shorting is the worst most money losing strategy of all time, and shorting and holding is even worse. It always facinates me that small speculators are facinated with shorting and making short calls. I think it is an ego thing, the "Im smarter than the suckers," a tyro's cockyness that in fact makes one more stuped and more of a sucker than those one considers a sucker. Dangerous stuff.
  5. i would not short apple

    it's been a big bull run but shorting and holding rimm is definitely less dangerous than buying and holding rimm.
    rimm's business is vulnerable and rimm's upward run will be hard to sustain.
    the problem with rimm is that it's in the electronics hardware market, and Nokia and the Korean giants are around the corner.
    some investors in the US don't seem to realise smart phones are on their way, they are hitting Europe, they will hit the US.
  6. I remember a Yahoo post a few years ago on the DNA board after DNA made about 50% increase in one day and a poster bought puts and doubled his money during a brief pull back BUT he did not sell and was bragging about holding on for a few more days. DNA then resumed the climb for another quick 25% increase and never did come back down. Never heard from that guy again.
  7. I agree Apple makes fad products that aren't very special... they have created fashion gadgets that a luxury. I don't think that is a winning business model in the long run...

    Blackberry has an excellent product. But it seems like someone else can come in and try to immitate and overpower like a Microsoft strategy.

    I would rather be long on these stocks if there is a good entry point. Investors will pay a premium for their double digit growth.

    Shorting these stocks long term isn't an investment strategy, it's a suicide pact.
  8. Cliff jumping?

    You are the man!

  9. What a joke..........

  10. Everyone is a bull on these stocks, I got no fundamental replies except trading truisms like shorting is a suicide pact, etc.,

    I think we're gonna be descending a wall of hope soon on these names.
    #10     Oct 7, 2007