Why predict?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by EmRock, Jul 31, 2007.

  1. Offer "incorrect" odds?
     
    #61     Aug 2, 2007
  2. jasonjm

    jasonjm

    I have no idea?

    1) double or nothing?
    2) cheat?
    3) knock them out and steal their wallet?
     
    #62     Aug 2, 2007
  3. Bet the other guy that in 100 throws there will not be 50 heads in total.
     
    #63     Aug 3, 2007
  4. I think what you meant to say was that from one instance to another instance, there is a greater chance of continuation rather than change.

    There is actual proof that markets trend about 30% of the time from what I have read.

    I think it's just a difference in phrasing though.
     
    #64     Aug 3, 2007
  5. maxpi

    maxpi

    A random market could, and does, have trends. Generate some random data by randomly adding or subtracting a small increment, eventually, the laws of probability being what they are, there will be a trend just as sure as if you flip a coin, the laws of probability being what they are, you will get heads 10 times in a row.
     
    #65     Aug 3, 2007
  6. jasonjm

    jasonjm


    ok, so how can you possibly turn that into profits

    makes no sense still, its random, it will trend as much as it will chop

    and then u have commissions to factor in, as well as bid/ask spread
     
    #66     Aug 3, 2007
  7. Watching and talking to 100s of traders, regardless of retail, prop. or institutional...

    I think people predict or get all emotional because they fear the uncertainty of the market. More like they're own defense mechanism...

    Some use emotions and get pissed to deal with it. Some try to predict / mentally simulate every outcome possible. Some have some peev. superstition. Some use statistics and tests. It's just a tool they use to comfort themselves from the uncertainty.

    On a trade-by-trade basis, trading is like walking in a pitch black room.
     
    #67     Aug 3, 2007
  8. Good post mate.
     
    #68     Aug 3, 2007
  9. Jack for President! JH - how do you come up with this stuff? Brilliant:)
     
    #69     Aug 3, 2007
  10. Get off of acid, man :D
     
    #70     Aug 3, 2007