CONTINUED... (SORRY FOLKS.. BUT THIS IS ABSOLUTELY REQUIRED IN ORDER TO ALERT PEOPLE TO THE hERSHY PROBLEM IN MY OPINION.. OF COURSE) In trading, one cannot always learn. (???????) That is most often precluded as a consequence of prior choices. ( THIS IS PURE FEACAL MATTER.. PEOPLE CHANGE.. EVEN AFTER THEY MAKE DECISIONS...HONEY PLEASE TAKE ME BACK.. ! OR DOESNT THAT RING ANY BELLS FOR YOU?) ) It is possible to learn to apply new support services to trading if the trading is successful. ( AGREED) Successful traders can continue to learn and unsuccessful traders cannot continue to learn. (rubbish, THATS LIKE SAYING BECAUSE i BLEW MY ACCOUNT ONCE i WILL NEVER EVER BE SUCCESSFUL.. DUDE.. ARE YOU TRYING TO BE A MORONIC FOOL ON PURPOSE?... I have long been associated with the scientific community (i DOUBT THAT IN ANY MEANINGFUL DOCTORATE FULFILLING WAY)where often people cooperate to move forward the science of things. Certainly, where profits are concerned, cards are often held close and leapfrogging occurs. ET was different for me for the most part. (PEOPLE.. YEP I THINK I GET IT.. YOU STATE THE OBVIOUS AND CLOUD IT IN SOUND BITES The fear, anxiety and anger, a consequence of the conventional orthodoxy,(YOU DEFINATELY HAVE A LIMITED VOCABAND IT DOES NOT) RULES. Sharing support, comfort and confidence is not on the table here in ET except in a few journals. ( AND YOU THINK I NEED COMFORT..?.. IN ORDER TO MAKE MYSELF A GOOD TRADER?...) The PVT and SCT journals will be available in the future and many contributors have been very helpful towards getting the working issues on the table so they can be iteratively refined. (iF i HAD TIME TO PROFFER A THEORY BASED ON YES/NO TO THREE OR FOUR SIGNALS AND TALK AS INTELIGABLY AS YOU iM SURE iD CREATE BUZZ.. YOU ARE NOT A GURU, NOT A QUANT EVEN, i KNOW OF NOW ib INTERESTED IN YOU OR ANY HEDGE FUND LOOKING FOR YOUR SKILL.. YOU ARE A FAKE IN EVERY WAY AND I AM SURPRISED PEOPLE BELIEVE IN YOUR CRAP NONSENSE.. I WASNT LOOKING FOR YOU TO FALL INTO YOUR OWN HOLE BUT YOUR REPLY HERE HAS ANSWERED EVERYTHING I NEEDED TO KNOW... AND THE RUB IS THIS.. COULD I TRUST MY MONEY WITH YOUR PLANS AFTER WHAT YOU HAVE WRITTEN HERE TODAY?.. NO ID BE ASHMED TO EVEN ADMIT TO READING THEM... WHAT A JOKE.. WHAT A DISGRACE It is really fun to make a lot more money than you need all the time. Deciding to do it, only takes a second. BE DO HAVE. I think I have addressed the questions at this point. Thank you for reading my stuff over the years. [/B][/QUOTE] i MAY BE BANNED NOW FOR SPEAKING MY MIND... BUT I DON'T NEED TO CONTRIBUTE HERE TO LEARN FROM OTHERS THAT POST.. BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE SAID.. JACK.. "YOU AIN'T ALL THAT".. IN FACT YOU ARE A CHARLATAN.. AND YOU ALMOST HAD ME FOOLED... YOU WOULDN'T LAST A WEEK IN AN IB, A MAJOR MBAE.G. HARVARD OR SIMILAR... YOUD BE LAUGHED OUT OF RESIDENCE... TRUST ME... YOU SPEAK TOO MUCH RUBBISH PAUL
Mr. Hershey, SFI was very interesting and I thank you for that reference. Your wry wit and provocative thoughts will be missed. Like Taleb you like to think outside the box and that's good. You are a survivor, but in the best sense, which is the one where you're not, in the least, impressed by the fact. I agree with you and arpgoy that whiners will eventually self-destruct and I think the same can be said of pompous pissants and unknowing dyscognoscenti. Rock on. lj PS: Clare Booth Luce responding to a question from the glib Mr. Cavett: "I don't know you from Adam, DICK (emphasis hers) , why should I call you by your first name?" I agree with CBL that one should not presume familiarity too easily.
Just imagine for a second that what Jack Hershey says were actually true. Make the mental effort. Just imagine there actually were a matrix through which the market could be seen at any moment and responded to perfectly. Then it would be completely irrelevant if you like the way Jack H. speaks or not, if you consider him cryptic, obtuse, verbose or whatever...because then, if you could make this your own, your trading would obviously be completely different from what you are doing now. So, if you have decided for yourself that it is all hogwash, that's fine.... but it would make sense to spend a bit of effort to make sure....
pissed goy, if you dont have a true edge, i agree psychology is needed. however, with an edge, a real one--- psych is not relevent--as a real edge can be automated removing any human intervention OR one can trade "like a computer" being totally confident in the edge removing the need for the psych aspect. regards, surf
The correct Psych is the key to *all* success. Not only in trading. Ever seen how elite fighting forces are trained? The purpose of the training is NOT to build more muscle or stamina, they already have that. The purpose is to break down the individual psychologically. To strip him to the point of where he thinks he can no longer endure. Many break down and are rejected. However the ones who transcend the point of "no return" find that they suddenly have access to an infinite source of energy, mental and physical. The point being? When you start out in this business, you do not need an "edge". You need, the passion, the perseverance, the discipline, the ability to be kicked down again and again and still get up and fight. You need to be positive, see the possibilities instead of giving up. The positive attitude and the new traders "psychological strength" will eventually pay off as he starts to begin to make sense of the price movement. The edge *WILL* come. It's not even a question of if. It *will* come, it is only a matter of time. To able to endure the burn for as long as it takes is the real key. *Not* some illusory "edge".
Any interpretation of the market must take into account a wide brief of variables... those variables are too disparate and the interactions between them too complex to compute and produce an accurate predictor of price action.. or even response to price action across all variables like "time in trade" or the price Vs risk profile for a trade. We can approach a marginally significant model but this must be coupelled with money management rules to limit account loss or Margin call such a thing is not just a simple puzzle and for 100years no one has or will produce an exact model of the markets allowing them an advantage that still wont have significant weaknesses.. As a result we must simplify the market into components which aim to group those variables so that each becomes more controllable within any model we choose to use to simulate that market ...yes? The tools we have had for many years are still the best, namely Price action Volume Market sentiment Fundamental information Open interest The behavior behind closely linked market products Market Psychology This isnt rocket science, its mathematics.. but ultimately its about understanding people not oversimplified or simplified systems. thats why in my opinion lines of support and resistance really are the best tools avalble because others use them ... and we can see the result of this daily in an uncanny way that this price action bounces or pushes through it with gusto as an example "A failure to transverse " FTT sounds alot like a resistance line to me... its already here.. and i dont need to clutter my graphs unnecessarily to reach the same effective conclusion really.. Paul