Why PREDICT a crash and short now? Wait and REACT!

Discussion in 'Trading' started by crgarcia, Oct 13, 2007.

  1. I dont want to argue now about being bullish or bearish, no.

    My point is: Why not just react? Futures fair value can spot an lower open (which will likely mark the beginning of the "expected" correction).

    Everyone here, even the ones who manage a bit of OPM -Other People Money- have relatively, so small accounts (some millions at most) that we can get in an out in a single day.

    We are NOT the billion dollar hedge funds who must plan weeks before the market, because of the massive amounts of money they manage.

    If you can't get out in a single day, I advice you to diversify.
  2. Who said that reacting will not get your ass handed to you? :) Use whatever you're used to & you'll be OK.

  3. Personally I examine the daily chart and/or big volume based bars to determine the predominant large trend at hand.

    Last Thursday half ET called the end of the world because of a simple retracement, failing to realize most if not all major trendlines were in fact, intact, making it nothing more than a retracement albeit a bit stronger on the Nasdaq but the Nasdaq has always been quite trendy in that respect.

    Needless to say this is still very much a bullish market until the uptrend on the big charts is violated and a clear sign of reversal manifests itself.

    There is also the possibility of consolidation.

  4. Because people get what they subconsciously look for in the markets. Some people are just really looking for pain or thrills.

  5. Prediction leads to more satisfaction. Its not just all about money after couple of millions.
  6. sounds like somebody is hung out to dry
  7. Diversifying might improve portfolio trading results. Maybe trade sugar futures, cocoa futures, soybean futures, long term. The returns on those contracts might be small but a stock and futures portfolio could show reduced volatility compared to a stock only portfolio. Long term currencies might be good trades also but more complex to simulate due to interest rate daily (minute to minute?) credit and debit.

    I recall 11 September 2001 the day the World Trade Center was destroyed. I remember I could not view most web sites then. I recall the attack at about 9:00 AM US Eastern Daylight Savings Time. Stock markets do not open until 9:30. If an event occurs during regular trading hours then I might not be able to trade by internet. The NYSE might close suddenly, trapping me in my positions. I recall trading was suspended for a week following 11 September 2001. I recall when trading resumed index average values opened about 7 % less that the prior close. A day trader could experience a big loss under those conditions. Even a long term trader might experience some unavoidable big losses.